According to domestic news, after the National Day holiday, the buyers and sellers returned to the market and China's imported alumina prices remained stable. According to industry sources, the CIF price for imported alumina last week was around 280-290 U.S. dollars per ton. However, the spot transaction volume was very low last week. The current market is relatively stable, and the general market transaction price is basically 280 US dollars / ton.
According to China Minmetals, they also heard that there are CIF quotes of 280-290 US dollars / ton, while the FOB price is about 250-260 US dollars. However, buyers are expecting a CIF CIF of US$250-260, which will result in the failure of the current transaction.
According to industry analysts, due to the substantial increase in domestic supply in China, the price of imported alumina is expected to further decline in the short term. At present, the price of domestic alumina is already lower than the price of 3,000 yuan/ton.
The decline in domestic alumina prices and the significant increase in supply will lead to an increase in the number of domestic manufacturers to increase the purchase volume of domestic alumina, which in turn will exert greater pressure on imported alumina. At the end of the year, the CIF CIF of imported alumina may fall to US$250/tonne.
China Aluminium, a larger alumina producer, lowered its alumina sales price to RMB 2,950/t on September 26, after a price of RMB 3,800/t, a decrease of 22.4%.
According to Minmetals, non-CAlco's alumina prices are even cheaper, typically around 2,800 yuan/ton, while its port spot alumina prices are maintained at US$3,050/ton. The domestic supply is very sufficient and the demand for imported alumina is very slow, so the price of imported alumina is likely to decline further.
According to Huaneng Aluminum, China's domestic supply is very strong. It is very likely that the recent offshore alumina FOB offers will drop to 230-240 US dollars / ton, while the CIF price is about 260-270 US dollars / ton.
Although it is not possible to trade at this price level at present, people in the industry predict that this price will appear in the short term. China’s alumina production this year is expected to increase from 8.5 million tons last year to 13.5 to 14 million tons this year. From January to August this year, China's alumina production increased by 51% to 8.33 million tons.
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