Liu Wenbo: China may face the issue of excess photovoltaic capacity

Sina Financial News "World Industry Leaders Conference" was held on September 5, 2011 in Changchun, Jilin Province.

The following is a speech record:

Liu Wenbo: Half a year ago, the nuclear crisis in Fukushima, Japan caused a relatively large impact, reflected in customers in Europe, America and some countries in the Asia Pacific region. One fact that should not be overlooked is that the proportion of nuclear energy in China is relatively low, which is 15%. China still relies on traditional fossil fuels. This has a greater impact on the nuclear production capacity under construction worldwide. More than half are in China. We believe that Japan’s nuclear crisis will affect China’s development in the short term. May be ushered in "wind rise." It is the favorable situation of wind energy, hydropower and photovoltaic. We have also noticed that the relevant ministries and commissions in China are constantly adjusting the planning of nuclear power. In the short term, it mainly focuses on such major issues as security review and security planning. However, we must also realize that in fact, as a developing country, China is still ahead of its neighbor Japan in nuclear power. We are second- and third-generation technologies. Moreover, Japan’s nuclear power stations have served longer than we have. We have an average of 10 years. They are almost 40 years old. Don't be overly pessimistic here. We have seen that half of China's newly added capacity for wind turbines has been accounted for last year, and as wind power continues to mature, costs will continue to fall. It is forecast that around 2015, the cost of wind power will be close to the cost of natural gas and coal. Based on this forecast, wind power will maintain rapid growth in the next five years. Some of China's leading wind power companies have quickly entered the international market. At present, Europe is still a major market, but it is expected that by 2015, the proportion of EU from current two-thirds to less than one-third will be mainly due to the rapid development of some countries, the United States, China, and India. . And they are different from each other. From the market point of view, the photovoltaic industry is relatively optimistic for a long period of time, resulting in an increase in a wide range of production capacity. However, in the near future, there will be a problem of overcapacity in China's photovoltaics. Hydropower is a versatile, ultra-low emission feature. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the national government considered the issue of immigration and entered the immersion period. Because of nuclear power, we have a relatively large development in hydropower, so as to make up for vacancies caused by nuclear power. We are not unfamiliar with the companies in Changchun. We helped FAW and Audi to upgrade the project. We have always emphasized green technology and we need to look at the nuclear power, wind power, and solar energy we talk about today in a comprehensive way. However, there are still some new materials. For example, we have relatively strong fields in Jilin, new materials, energy efficiency, etc. We have helped Germany, Spain, and Brazil formulate new energy policies. China's new energy industry leaders also know that it is because of our help. The German government has formulated plans to promote the development of photovoltaics and other fields in Germany, which has led to the establishment and export of photovoltaics in China. We have some reports on photovoltaics and wind power recently. If you are interested, you can contact me. Thank you!