1. The performance of PV companies has been significantly reduced or suffered huge losses.
According to the third quarter financial report of 11 Chinese PV companies listed in the US in fiscal 2011, except for Jinke Energy and Daxin Energy, the two companies have a slight surplus, including Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy, LDK, and Trina. Nine PV companies, including leading companies such as Energy and Solar Energy, all suffered huge losses, with a total loss of US$461 million. At the same time, many domestic PV listed companies have predicted that the net profit in 2011 will drop significantly compared with the same period in 2010.
In addition, most small and medium-sized PV manufacturers have insufficient orders due to their lack of competitiveness in product technology and cost. The operating rate is seriously insufficient, the main business income has shrunk sharply, and even have to face production or bankruptcy. According to CCID survey, more than half of China's small and medium-sized battery component enterprises have stopped production, 30% of production has been cut sharply, 10%-20% has been reduced slightly or efforts are being made to maintain production, and layoffs have begun to varying degrees.
2. Faced with the severe challenges of rising trade protectionism.
In the third quarter of 2011, three US PV companies, Evergreen Solar, SpectraWatt and Solyndrat, declared bankruptcy, prompting seven US solar panel manufacturers to file a trade complaint with the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission, requesting solar cells exported to the US for China. The board launched an investigation into “anti-dumping and counter-subsidy†(hereinafter referred to as “double-reverseâ€).
On March 19, 2012, the US Department of Commerce initially determined that the Chinese solar energy manufacturer’s “double-reverse†was determined. Chinese solar product manufacturers accepted the unfair subsidy from the government and decided to add 2.9% to Chinese solar cells and solar panels. To 4.73% tariff. Among them, Wuxi Suntech was subject to a tax rate of 2.9%, Changzhou Tianhe was 4.73%, while other Chinese manufacturers were 3.59%. As for the final ruling of anti-dumping judgments and countervailing duties, it is expected to be announced in the first half of 2012.
At the same time, German photovoltaic manufacturer Solarworld also lobbied in Europe, which has the largest share of the global PV installation market, and asked the European Commission to conduct "anti-monopoly, anti-dumping and countervailing" (hereinafter referred to as "three anti-subsidy") investigations on photovoltaic products from China.
In view of the US “double-reverse†investigation, which is not conducive to China’s PV companies, the EU is likely to launch a “three-reverse†investigation of China to alleviate its economic crisis to restrict China’s PV products from entering the European market. To the export of photovoltaic products in China.
The four major reasons for the ups and downs of the photovoltaic industry
China's solar photovoltaic industry has the characteristics of “market is outside, core technology is out, and raw materials are outâ€. At present, the development is in trouble. It is mainly affected by factors such as excessive capacity expansion, slowing market demand growth, sharp decline in product prices, and tight capital chain. . Among them, the rapid expansion of production capacity is the main inducing factor of the sharp decline in product prices and the tight capital chain of enterprises, and has become the key to leading the industry into the winter.
First, the pace of capacity expansion is too fast. In recent years, more and more companies and capital have been tempted by relatively high industry gross margins, lower industry entry barriers and broad potential markets, and have entered the solar photovoltaic industry with the support of local governments. According to the data of Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, as of March 2011, there were 176 solar photovoltaic enterprises in Zhejiang Province, of which 78 were established after September 2010, and less than 30 were on the scale. The “leap-forward†development of “slamming†triggered explosive growth in photovoltaic capacity in the short term. According to incomplete statistics, the solar cell production capacity of 156 battery component companies nationwide in 2011 exceeded 35GW.
Second, the growth of market demand slowed down. In 2011, the global installed capacity of photovoltaic power was about 24GW, a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, a sharp drop from the year-on-year growth rate of 129% in 2010, and the growth rate slowed by more than 2/3. Mainly due to the downward adjustment of subsidies in the photovoltaic market in Germany, Italy and Spain, the growth rate of the European market, which accounted for nearly 80% of the global installed capacity in 2010, has slowed significantly. For China's solar photovoltaic industry, where the proportion of photovoltaic products exports is close to 95% in 2010, the relatively low growth rate of external market demand cannot absorb the rapid growth of domestic production capacity.
Third, the price of the product has dropped significantly. In 2011, due to the concentrated release of domestic manufacturers' production capacity, the relative shrinkage of demand, the improvement of production efficiency, the high gross profit margin of international and domestic leading manufacturers, and the resale of stocks by enterprises, polysilicon prices exceeded US$90/kg from the end of the first quarter. The high position fell to 30 US dollars / kg at the end of the year, a drop of more than 60%; the price of the wafer link fell less than the polysilicon link, but the decline also reached 40% -50% compared with the beginning of the year; the price of the battery and components fell although Lower than the silicon segment, but the decline is also 40% compared with the beginning of the year. The sharp drop in product prices has had a major impact on photovoltaic manufacturing companies with small capacity, high energy consumption and high electricity prices.
Fourth, the corporate capital chain is tense. In 2011, under the tightening monetary policy environment, the banking system was affected by factors such as quota restrictions, deposit-to-deposit ratio constraints, and pessimistic expectations for the PV market. Almost all commercial banks and policy banks have tightened loans to small and medium-sized solar PV companies. The policy, that is, credit is based on stocks, and no new credit will be given. At the same time, due to the rapid expansion of production capacity, the sharp fall in the price of photovoltaic products, and the serious inventory backlog, the asset-liability ratio of major PV companies has risen sharply, and the use of self-accumulated endogenous financing functions has been basically lost. A large number of PV manufacturing companies are in the process of funding. The edge of the chain breaks.
Handling severe challenges from three aspects
In view of the large-scale loss of the solar photovoltaic industry and the severe challenges facing the rise of trade protectionism, it is suggested that the following three aspects should be taken.
First, we must correctly understand the current development dilemma, build confidence, and overcome difficulties.
The imbalance between supply and demand is a problem that any market industry will face, especially in the early stage of the development of emerging industries. Under the conditions of market economy, as long as demand keeps growing, the market mechanism can automatically eliminate backward production capacity with high cost, poor quality, backward technology and lack of competitiveness through market price fluctuations and market participants' pursuit of interest.
In the long run, energy development must be transformed, and the development prospects of the solar photovoltaic industry are beyond doubt. Therefore, the current development dilemma experienced by the solar photovoltaic industry is, on the one hand, the necessary stage in the process of rapid and rapid development of emerging industries. In such a spiraling process, enterprises and markets will bear the cost of adjustment, and will not It constitutes a huge restriction on the development of the industry; on the other hand, it also helps people to think more calmly about the rational development of the industry, that is, industrial development is not only a simple increase in production capacity, but more importantly, the improvement of international competitiveness under the premise of mastering core technologies. And the market continues to nurture and grow.
Second, we must select appropriate policy priorities to promote the healthy and orderly development of photovoltaic manufacturing.
First, reduce the introduction of key sets of equipment, and strengthen technical research on key links and key components. On the one hand, in combination with the actual situation of industrial development, the implementation of the set of key equipment and key technologies for the early stage of industrialization will be implemented in a localized way, through the decomposition and development of imported technologies and key equipment, and innovative development; on the other hand, we must gradually change the current The development model for the introduction of key sets of equipment focuses on the introduction of technology patents, technical intelligence and basic scientific research results.
At the same time, promote cooperation in all links of the industrial chain, actively develop new technologies that can reduce costs, improve energy efficiency, improve photoelectric conversion efficiency, and product performance, strive to obtain production technology and technology with independent intellectual property rights, and enhance China's choice of technology routes. Autonomy. In particular, it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of the combination of production, education and research, and strengthen the technology application and diamond wire cutting technology, large size, which are widely recognized in the industry, such as polysilicon cold hydrogenation technology, quasi-monocrystalline silicon ingot technology, and photovoltaic glass anti-reflective coating technology. Research and development of leading-edge production technologies such as district melting single crystal silicon technology and recycled silicon powder technology, as well as key equipment such as controllers, inverters, reactors, and large-scale hydrogen compressors.
Second, strengthen industry access management and focus on supporting leading enterprises with relevant technical background. Through strict government and industry standards, in particular, we must regulate industry investment in terms of energy consumption, environmental protection requirements, and safety production, and resolutely eliminate enterprises with low technical level and serious pollution, and guide resources to superior technology, less pollution, and low energy consumption. Large-scale, low-cost, industry-competitive leading enterprises gather, strengthen industry integration and mergers and acquisitions, and ensure the orderly and sustainable development of the industry. At the same time, continue to establish and improve the technical standards, testing and certification systems for raw materials and products in the solar photovoltaic industry, ensure the quality of raw materials and final products such as polysilicon, photovoltaic modules, and regulate the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
Third, accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment. Drawing on the policy measures to eliminate backward production capacity in Japan, we will establish a equipment registration system by strengthening cooperation with industry, that is, registering existing equipment and restricting the use of non-registered equipment, and restricting new equipment. At the same time, the National Strategic Emerging Industry Development Special Fund will be used to provide preferential interest rate loans to those enterprises that have eliminated outdated equipment as planned, to provide relief to the unemployed personnel caused by the elimination of equipment, and to adopt a special depreciation system, which allows enterprises to fix a portion of profits. Depreciation of assets is included in the cost to reduce the tax burden.
The third is to encourage solar photovoltaic applications and further develop the solar photovoltaic market.
Combining the characteristics of intermittent, volatility, low schedulability and high cost of solar photovoltaic power generation, we draw on the experience of developed countries to promote industrial development, gradually solve the problems that restrict the development of photovoltaic market, vigorously cultivate domestic consumer market, and promote industry and market. Coordinated development.
First, strengthen the construction of the power grid. It is necessary to ensure that the construction of the power grid matches the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, and strive to unify the layout of the power grid and photovoltaic power plants. In order to promote the consumption of photovoltaic power generation and enhance the management capability of grid-connected operation, a solar power generation forecasting system should be established to enhance real-time monitoring of solar power generation; and continue to increase the smart grid, UHV transmission line network, and large-scale energy storage. Development and application of technology.
Second, support the development of small distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. Strengthen the research on the impact of user-side distributed power mode on power system security stability, distributed power system optimization integration and matching design technology, and distributed power micro-grid system integration technology. Promote distributed photovoltaic power generation by subsidizing the installation of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems for residents, governments, and enterprises, appropriately liberalizing the operating licenses for distributed solar photovoltaic power generation projects, and encouraging power companies to repurchase surplus power from distributed photovoltaic power generation projects at high prices. .
Third, promote photovoltaic power generation projects as soon as possible. Establish a minimum proportion of photovoltaic power generation plans for grid companies. Local power supply companies are encouraged to participate in the construction and preliminary work of photovoltaic power generation projects, and the supporting power grid facilities will be part of the project construction, and strive to achieve synchronization of photovoltaic power generation projects and power grid construction. For government subsidies for photovoltaic power generation projects, the electricity subsidy model should be adopted according to the actual power generation amount, that is, “settlement after power generationâ€. At the same time, under the system that the income of existing grid enterprises still depends on the “spread†between the power generation link and the terminal sales link, the research on the impact of the “spontaneous use†solar photovoltaic power generation on the operating costs and the total income of the grid enterprises is strengthened.
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