The "spring" of domestic compound fertilizer has not arrived yet

Since February, domestic compound fertilizer market has few flaws. However, the market generally believes that the current compound fertilizer prices are still high. Most manufacturers operate at low load, and even limit production and production suspension. Distributors do not take goods and wait. Although the prices of compound fertilizer raw materials have risen, manufacturers have the intention to adjust prices, but the signs of price increases have just begun, and the cold currents have made the traders who want to request for goods get in the way. When has the long-awaited compound fertilizer market been "cold"?

At the beginning of February, the overall fertilizer market rebounded, but compound fertilizers remained stable. Take Shandong, Jiangsu and other places as an example, the mainstream price of 45%* compound fertilizer is 2,750-2,820 yuan (t price, the same below), and the mainstream price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is about 2,580 yuan. Only sporadic manufacturers raised compound fertilizer prices by 50-100 yuan. According to Li Yong, a dealer in Shandong's Yangxin County, after the Spring Festival in previous years, the price of compound fertilizer will increase by one or two hundred yuan. However, the price increase this year is basically controlled at around tens of yuan, which is relatively stable.

First of all, raw materials prices. After urea prices continued to rise for a week after the holiday, the factory price of small-granule urea in the north rose to 2,120 yuan. After the cold weather struck, market purchases decreased, and prices have declined slightly in the past week. The current factory price is stable. 2100 yuan/ton. However, international urea prices have experienced a certain degree of decline, coupled with a decrease in procurement and an increase in corporate inventories. It is expected that urea prices may fluctuate slightly in the short term. The price of mono-ammonium was affected by the poor procurement of compound fertilizers, and the prices had declined to a certain extent. Potassium chloride was under pressure from the regional inventory and downstream purchases, and the shipment was not smooth, and the prices continued to fall.

From the perspective of the above three raw material price trends, the production cost of compound fertilizer is still high, although the prices of monoammonium and potassium chloride are falling, but the decline is not significant. Under the circumstances that the downstream market starts slowly, the raw material procurement of compound fertilizer manufacturers will still be Be cautious and careful.

Second, the company started control and dealers did not increase inventory. In February, although the operating rate of the manufacturers has increased, the pre-orders are mainly executed, and the new orders are generally accepted. A lot of factory salesmen rushed to markets around the world four or five days after the Spring Festival holiday. Sichuan Kaiyuan sales manager said, “The temperature after the holiday season is still low, and the fertilizer season may be delayed by 1 to 2 weeks compared with previous years.” Manufacturers who resumed normal production rely mainly on early-stage orders for support, and the number of new orders is limited. For this reason, many companies do not quote prices, adopt prepayment policies, and give priority to production and shipment. Dealers are still cautious. A dealer in Zaoyang, Hubei Province, believes that the current market situation is not clear, dealers should reduce risk, can only reduce inventory, take the strategy of follow-up with sales.

Third, national policies and the use of fertilizers favor the sale of compound fertilizers. Both the National No. 1 Document and the 12th Five-Year Plan have given more hope to the agricultural sector. The tendency of farmers to use fertilizers has gradually shifted to high efficiency and convenience. As a result, demand for compound fertilizers and slow- and controlled-release fertilizers has begun to increase for farmers in most areas.

Third, competitive products and changes in temperature are also good. After the holiday season, the price of diammonium phosphate, which is a competitor product for compound fertilizers, has risen by 50 to 100 yuan, which is good for compound fertilizers. The price increase of diammonium will inevitably increase the trading volume of compound fertilizers.

Before the peak season for spring plowing comes, the compound fertilizer market will go from here? Shaanxi Agricultural Branch Lei's views are more convincing. "Diammonium, urea and other raw materials have no market value. The recent rise in compound fertilizer prices will not be too large."

Overall, the “unblocking” of the compound fertilizer market is only a matter of time. Since the market purchase volume before the Spring Festival is not large, inventory in some regions is low, and it is believed that the compound fertilizer market will appear for a period of time to prepare fertilizer “springtime”.