2015 Global PV Industry Annual Analysis Report

I. The scale and distribution of the global PV industry market in 2014

In 2014, the global PV market development can be summarized as “stable and conservative”. China SINOSURE expects the global PV installed capacity to reach 44GW, which is about 19% higher than the 37GW in 2013. Among them, the three markets of China, Japan and the United States continue to maintain the obvious advantages in 2013, and the installed capacity is expected to be 10.5GW, 9GW and 6.5GW respectively. The installed capacity in the European market has been declining for three consecutive years. Despite the strong growth of the UK PV industry, the German and Italian markets have further declined, and the overall installed capacity is expected to be around 7GW. In terms of emerging markets, markets such as India, South Africa and Chile all showed rapid development in 2014.

From the perspective of key markets:

The series of measures introduced by China China since October 2014 are aimed at the mechanism problems that arise in the development of the photovoltaic industry itself, such as imperfect standards, mismatch between power station and power grid construction, and reselling “road strips”. Its role is not short-term, nor is it simply to solve problems, but based on the continuous improvement of the market development rules of the photovoltaic industry.

Japan and Japan's new round of on-grid tariff policy adjustment is about to begin, but the weak recovery of the Japanese economy, the near-peak capacity of the land grid, and the renewed trend of nuclear power are gradually becoming apparent. We believe that the growth rate of the Japanese market will decline.

The US market in the United States maintained a steady development in 2014. The installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 1.35 GW in the third quarter, up 41% from the same period of last year, and the fourth single-season installed capacity in the United States exceeded 1 GW. Among them, the installed capacity of residential systems was more than 300MW for the first time, which was 58% higher than that of the same period of last year. The installed capacity of non-residential systems decreased year-on-year, which was 3% lower than that of the same period last year. The installed capacity of public utilities was in the third quarter of 2014. At 825 MW, such power generation projects have become the mainstream of US developer development.

In the UK UK market, the deadline for the ROC program awarded by the government to photovoltaic power plants larger than 5MW was advanced to March 2015. In 2014, the rush to install led to a large-scale growth in PV installations. However, there are still policy variables in the UK PV market. In April 2015, the government will amend the current subsidy policy, and the Renewable Energy Obligation Act will also be terminated in 2017.

Second, the photovoltaic industry situation

In 2014, the PV industry situation improved compared with 2013. China's PV production scale still maintains the number one position in the world, and it is expected to remain the first in the medium term. As the level of photovoltaic technology continues to develop and progress, the cost of all links in the industrial chain has also declined. At the same time, with the improvement of the domestic and international PV application market, the prices of products including polysilicon materials, silicon wafers, battery chips and photovoltaic modules have rebounded in different degrees in 2014. In terms of financial status, in 2014, the capacity utilization rate of China's PV manufacturers was effectively improved, and the gross profit margin of the industry rebounded significantly. Some enterprises' capacity utilization rate reached more than 85%, and the gross profit margin exceeded 20%.

Third, the import and export of China's photovoltaic products in 2014

In terms of international trade, although China initiated the “double anti-poly” of polysilicon for the United States and South Korea, the import of processing trade was unimpeded throughout the year. In 2014, China imported 102,177 tons of polysilicon, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and the import value exceeded 2 billion US dollars. The highest record in history. In terms of exports, Japan has replaced Europe and the United States as China's largest PV export market. At the same time, many PV manufacturers have also turned their attention to the domestic market and emerging markets. In 2014, China's PV module exports totaled US$14.46 billion, an increase of 17.54% year-on-year. Although the export situation has improved, we believe that the overall export situation is still unstable. More and more countries are launching trade barriers for China's PV products. The demand for emerging markets is still unable to play a supporting role. In the short term, China's PV industry export situation is not Very optimistic.

For the high-growth Japanese and American markets that account for half of China's PV product exports, the explosive growth of the Japanese PV market and the pull-out effect of the US PV “double-reverse” measures are one of the main factors driving the growth of PV exports. At present, the US "double opposition" has already made a final ruling. If the settlement cannot be reached, China's PV exports to the US will show a significant downward trend in the future. Although the Japanese market has experienced massive explosive growth, due to the high subsidy quota and the problem of photovoltaic power consumption, subsidies will be cut at any time because of the limited financial resources of the government. In the future, the Japanese market will continue to grow less.

The measures of the European market for China's limited price limit not only make China's PV products less competitive in the European market, but the “double-reverse” initiators are still encouraging the EU foreign trade department to impose more stringent trade sanctions on Chinese enterprises. At present, China's exports of photovoltaic products to Europe are partly re-exported to Japan, Malaysia and other places. According to the news, Europe intends to step up investigations into such evasive measures. If successful, China's export situation to Europe will be even more pessimistic. Coupled with the impact of financing, political and policy stability, other emerging markets have not risen rapidly, and the severe external situation will bring huge challenges to China's PV product exports.

Fourth, the development trend of the global photovoltaic industry in 2015

We believe that the global PV market is developing in the direction of “big country dominated and market structure is diversified”, and the price gap between different markets will gradually narrow. In 2015, China is expected to surpass Germany to become the world's largest installed capacity. Although oil prices may be an important reference indicator for national government planning departments in formulating photovoltaic development plans, from the current point of view, the decline in crude oil prices has little impact on the fundamentals of PV demand.

From a specific country perspective, China is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest PV market in 2015. The goal of adding 15GW of new PV grid-connected capacity in the country is likely to be exceeded. In recent years, the fast-growing Japanese market has been affected by limited land supply, grid connection and upcoming on-grid tariff policy review. The country's installed capacity in 2015 is expected to be between 6.5-7GW. In addition, the development of emerging markets should not be overestimated due to slow policy implementation and the government's desire to avoid other markets that are dying. Although the dependence of the development of the photovoltaic industry on subsidies will not change much in the short term, with the rapid decline in the price of photovoltaic products in recent years, the cost of electricity and electricity will also decline year by year, and the impact of future government subsidies on the development of the industry will gradually decrease. IHS expects global PV installed capacity to increase by 16%-25% in 2015, between 53-57 GW.

V. 2015 PV industry export risk

In general, while the photovoltaic industry is gradually recovering, it will still face risks such as increased trade friction, economic fluctuations affecting industry trends, and unstable emerging markets. In 2015, in the case of China's photovoltaic products relying on cost-effective advantages to export, some countries to reduce the impact of this fluctuation on domestic enterprises, the willingness to introduce trade protection measures will be enhanced, resulting in further increase in trade friction. In addition, the global economic recovery will continue to differentiate, and a country's macroeconomic downturn will continue to be transmitted to the photovoltaic industry. The most important thing is that the structure of most large-scale export enterprises in China is excessively concentrated, especially to the Japanese and American markets. The risk of over-reliance on a single market is still widespread.

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