China's CNC industry, which has gradually developed from the late 1950s, has undergone three adjustments, optimizations, and restructurings in recent years. Pioneering, is getting on the right track.
Since 1993, China's CNC machine tool industry has entered an adjustment period. The lessons of history are profound. How to look at the situation of industrial development, there are currently two representative attitudes: one is excessive pessimism. It is believed that the numerical control machine tool industry faces too many problems, the historical burden is heavy, the liquidity is lacking, the product level is low, the market competitiveness is weak, and it is difficult to have the power to return to heaven; the other is blind waiting. It is believed that the CNC machine tool industry itself does not have big problems, but the objective environment has encountered temporary difficulties. As long as it persists, when the macro situation changes, it can reproduce its glory.
In fact, these two attitudes have a certain one-sidedness. We believe that the current situation of industrial development is tortuous, but it has certain inevitability. As long as we can grasp it, we can gradually step out of the trough and gradually enter a virtuous circle.
First, the basic situation of industrial development
Since the reform and opening up in China in the 1980s, the state has attached great importance to the development of numerical control technology and numerical control machine tools. Through the introduction of technology and scientific research, it has experienced the "6th Five-Year Plan" and "Seventh Five-Year Plan" introduction technology digestion and absorption, and the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" development The copyright CNC system, the commercialization and industrialization of the "Ninth Five-Year Plan", has laid a good foundation for the industrialization of numerical control technology and has made great progress. At present, China's numerical control technology has transitioned from the research and development stage to the promotion and application stage, and it is also the period from the closed system to the open system. Nowadays, a group of enterprises capable of producing CNC machine tools and CNC systems in batches can be produced. In the numerical control technology software, some single technologies are close to foreign standards.
There are more than 100 major CNC machine tool manufacturers in China, among which 42 are capable of mass production of CNC machine tools (30 state-owned enterprises, 5 private enterprises, 7 joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises), with an average annual output of 80-150 units, several The annual output of key enterprises can reach 1400-1700 units; there are 75 production enterprises of numerical control systems (including spindles and feed drive units); however, there are 8 enterprises with certain mass production. There are 3 enterprises in China, 2 private enterprises, 3 joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises. There are more than 300 enterprises producing CNC machine tools, including the following eight categories: machine tool auxiliary equipment; machine tool universal parts; machine tool hydraulic and pneumatic; machine tools Chemical products; machine tools; machine tool accessories; machine tool systems; abrasives, abrasives.
Second, the technical situation
China has established a good technical foundation for the industrialization of CNC machine tools through the introduction of technology, digestion and absorption, and scientific and technological research, and the development of independent copyright CNC systems. The newly developed 1300 varieties of CNC machine tools have a certain coverage. Most of the newly developed domestic CNC machine tools reached the mid-level of the 1980s, and some of them reached the international level in the 1990s, providing a number of high-level CNC machine tools for national key construction.
The development and production of CNC systems have also achieved certain results: 80 varieties have been newly developed. CNC system is the core technology of CNC machine tools. Its variety and quality directly affect the development of domestic CNC machine tools. Over the years, foreign developed countries have imposed an embargo policy on importing high-end CNC systems to me. Therefore, since the "Seventh Five-Year Plan", the state has always supported the development of the CNC system as a top priority. The CNC system with Chinese copyright has been developed, and some key technologies that have been blocked by China have been mastered. The system has laid the foundation for self-development and production. Most of the CNC machine tool supporting products have been produced, and the self-matching rate exceeds 60%.
A key breakthrough has been made in the key technologies affecting the development of China's CNC industry: in the aspect of numerical control systems, the initial structural transformation was first solved. At the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period, China did not have a clear framework for technical development, that is, the use of ASICs or a PC-based platform structure. During the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, through expert discussions, the relevant state departments clearly developed the CNC system based on the PC. Through the "Ninth Five-Year Plan", the framework has been initially completed. Secondly, the reliability index of the numerical control system is improved. The MTBF is 20,000 hours from 5,000 hours. This indicator makes the domestic CNC system reach the international advanced level and basically solves the high standard requirements of domestic users. Again, the technical problem of multi-coordinate linkage is solved. From the past three coordinate linkages, up to eight coordinates have been achieved, breaking the foreign technology restrictions on China. At the same time, China's domestic CNC system has already had mass production capacity, and the market brand is gradually established.
In the aspect of numerical control machine tools, the problem of the general identification method of reliability indicators is first solved. At the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan", the MTBF of China's CNC machine tools was only 200 hours. After several years of hard work, it has now reached 400 hours (500 hours abroad), with a growth rate of 100%. The spindle speed of the machining center increased from 400 rpm to 10,000 rpm, which solved the problem of importing a large number of foreign CNC machine tools due to the low key technical indicators. At present, the related key moment products of this technology have also been produced in small batches, such as built-in electric spindles. The coordinate feed rate reached 40 meters per minute from 15 meters per minute at the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" and reached the international level. The tool change speed of the machining center has reached 1.5-3 seconds from the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period of 5 to 8 seconds, which is also close to the world advanced level.
Third, the main problems in the development of the industry, the slow development of the industry is a superficial phenomenon
In a period of time, China's CNC machine tool products have relatively few varieties, and the development and delivery cycle is long. Because there is no development according to market demand, the batch size is not large, and other factors restrict, the quality is unstable, and the performance level is relatively high. A certain gap, reliability is a prominent quality crux, can not meet market demand, competitiveness is not strong, market share is low, software development investment is insufficient, the developed CNC system lacks a common software specification and support platform. Therefore, there is still a distance from serialization and commercialization. At present, such problems have begun to receive widespread attention and preliminary solutions. Slow industry adjustment is an internal reason
As early as the mid-1980s, China's machine tool industry was a “fatnyâ€. Many people in the industry appealed to “weight loss and strengthâ€, to adjust the structure, and to compress the production of ordinary products. But over the years, due to some illusions in the market and many companies focusing on immediate interests, the real three adjustments, namely: industry, product, organizational restructuring, no substantial progress. By 1992 and early 1993, the production of ordinary machine tools reached its peak. One general car could sell 60,000 yuan, and one ordinary milling machine could sell more than 100,000. Many enterprises and intermediate links also reached the peak. However, during this period, the company did not rely on the financial resources to grow up in time, but instead increased the output of ordinary machine tools, which made us lose the best adjustment opportunities. After 1993, the adjustment of the machine tool industry was in line with the law of market economy development. It was promoted by the tremendous power of conscious and passive, and the direction was correct. However, when the economic situation declined, it was inevitably painful. . The decline for five consecutive years, one is due to its own reasons for management, quality, product level, etc.; there are also reasons for accelerating the adjustment structure. In 1994, the total output value of machine tool industry (90-year constant price) reached 17.6 billion yuan, the output value reached 22 billion yuan, and the total output of machine tools reached 200,000 units. The proportion of ordinary machine tools and general-purpose cutting tools is as high as 93%. The proportion of CNC machine tools, special machine tools and various automatic lines is very small, and the domestic machine tool market share is only 38%. From 1993 to 1998, the output value of China's machine tool industry continued to decline. Due to market changes and structural adjustments, the market capacity was reduced to 75%. The total output value of China's machine tool industry is 14.96 billion yuan, of which metal processing machine tools are about 9 billion yuan, the market share is 47%, the total output of machine tools is only 100,000 units (gold cutting and forging), and in 100,000 machine tools. Among the sales, CNC machine tool automation production line and various advanced cutting tools reached 27.7%. It is precisely because of structural changes that it is possible to form a situation in which production declines and market share increases. To illustrate, this is a change that occurs after the machine tool industry adapts to market needs and adjusts itself.
Fourth, the slow establishment of policy and technical support system is an external factor
For more than 40 years, the Chinese government has devoted a lot of energy to the development of CNC machine tools. Financial and material resources have also introduced some support measures in the policy, which have played a significant role in promoting the development of CNC machine tools. We must use these policies.
However, in terms of policy support and mutual restraint, the necessary protection for domestic CNC machine tools is too thin, while foreign imports are exempt from two taxes, while domestic products rarely enjoy this. treatment. At the same time, because CNC machine tools require a high-level component specialization technology supporting system, and the overall level of China's industrial development can not meet the establishment of such a system, the state has no major measures for the establishment of such a system, so the CNC The development of the industry has not played a more powerful role.
V. Analysis of the impact of China's entry into the WTO on the development of China's CNC machine tool industry
The GATT considers it to be the basic code of the post-war international trade system and trade order. It is regarded by the State party as the only shortcut to develop its own economy. Negotiations on China’s resumption of the status of the GATT are also carried out for six years. In operation, China's economy has gradually integrated into the international cycle, and has undergone major changes from the domestic market structure and corporate survival environment, and market competition will become more intense.
1. Favorable impact: creating a good international environment for Chinese machine tool exports
In general, nearly 90% of China's machine tool exports are sold to North America, Hong Kong and Macao, and the remaining 100 countries and regions account for only 10% of exports. Joining the WTO now seems to enjoy the MFN status of all Contracting States; it can form a diversified and multilateral foreign trade pattern without discrimination; it is not subject to changes in the trading environment caused by non-economic factors; it breaks through the technological blockade of some countries against China; Trade disputes can also use the GATT multilateral dispute settlement mechanism to safeguard our economic and trade interests.
2. Favorable impact: promote product water quality and quality improvement
One of the difficulties in China's machine tool industry is the matching of CNC systems, servo systems, inspection systems, hydraulic and electrical components and components. With the opening of the country, companies can choose the best in the international scope, carry out international matching, and promote the improvement of product level and quality.
3. Favorable impact: favorable for the introduction of foreign capital and new technologies
China's huge market and cheap labor have laid the foundation for the combination and cooperation of foreign advanced CNC technology and mature management. Appropriate use of foreign technology and funds is conducive to the development of the company itself. After China's accession to the WTO, China will generally adopt internationally accepted economic and trade measures and legal protection standards, which will increase foreign investors' confidence in China's economic system and facilitate the introduction of foreign capital and new technologies. Favorable impact: help improve international competitiveness
Chinese enterprises participate in international competition in business decision-making and competitiveness China's foreign trade transparency will be significantly improved, enterprises can directly participate in foreign export business, can correctly and quickly grasp market information, business decision-making, and enhance competitiveness.
4. Favorable impact: conducive to the transformation of business management mechanism
The World Trade Organization is based on the market economy, and the reform of China's economic system is also aimed at establishing a socialist market economic system. To make China's economic operations conform to international practices means that the government needs to change its functions, which is conducive to the transformation of business management mechanisms.
6. Adverse effects on the development of CNC machine tools in China
According to the WTO principle, for China, it is beneficial to the import of foreign CNC machine tools. The number of imported CNC machine tools will further increase, and the market share of domestic CNC machine tools will be more difficult.
Since China will implement the principle of non-discrimination in import and export trade, that is, MFN status and national treatment in each contracting country. Such imported CNC machine tools in the domestic sales, purchase, transportation, distribution and domestic CNC machine tool products to implement uniform laws and regulations, do not implement different domestic taxes on imported CNC machine tools. For imported CNC machine tools, only tariffs can be used as the only means of protection. However, based on the principle of free trade, tariff protection is also required to be decremented, and the reduced tax rate is generally restricted, and should not be arbitrarily raised. If it is to be improved, it must also be given to the original negotiating country. Compensate with major interest countries. In particular, according to the principle of prohibiting the use of quantitative restrictions, quotas or import licenses may not be established or maintained to restrict or prohibit the importation of products from other Contracting States. As a result, low tariff and non-quota management are beneficial to the import of CNC machine tools from foreign manufacturers.
In addition, some governments use loans to assist the export of enterprises in the country. Most of these loans are designated to purchase CNC machine tools in the country. Most domestic-funded enterprises in the procurement of equipment do not pass the bidding, but the equipment in the scope of foreign investment is used. Factors can make a large number of foreign CNC machine tools enter China.
In the fierce market competition, the development situation of domestic CNC machine tools and CNC systems will be more severe. In order to protect the growth of its own numerical control industry, China basically does not rely on the regulation of tariff leverage to restrict imports (the tariff rate is very low, the tax rate of CNC machine tools is 9.7%, and the tax rate of numerical control devices is only 5%). ), there is no import license. Direct interventions such as import pricing, administrative examination and approval, and import planning, but the implementation of import restrictions on foreign machine tools that have already met the needs of domestic CNC machine tools and numerical control devices, effectively controlled Chinese state-owned enterprises to import foreign CNC in the 1980s. The magnitude of the product. However, since 1990, due to the rapid increase in the proportion of imported equipment of domestic foreign-funded enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises investing in and importing CNC machine tools for their own use are exempt from import duties and value-added tax according to the current foreign investment laws and regulations of the state. Therefore, in recent years, The import volume of CNC machine tools has risen sharply. At present, China is already the second largest importer of CNC machine tools in the world.
The import of CNC machine tools in China has increased sharply in the past ten years since the beginning of the WTO accession negotiations. In 2002, the number of imported CNC machine tools increased by more than 10 times compared with 1991, from 1,209 units to 25,097 units, and the amount of exchanges increased by more than 10 times. From US$130 million to US$1.8 billion, the value of imported CNC machine tools in 2002 was 5.2 times that of domestic CNC machine tools. Such high import growth rate and serious trade deficit have caused serious impact on the development of China's CNC machine tool industry. The survival of the developing CNC machine tool industry in China is suffering a huge impact. Under this situation, it is difficult to get out of the predicament by relying on the industry's own efforts and efforts. It must be supported and protected by the state. Get out of the woods and seek survival.
7. Current situation and characteristics of China's machine tool industry
Table 1 Table of Imports of Some Machine Tool Tools in 2002
From the perspective of the industry as a whole, China's machine tool industry is experiencing the best period of development since 1992. Since the recovery growth began in 1999, the total industrial output has increased by double digits for four consecutive years. Last year, the total output value of the machine tool industry was 54.8 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year; the import was 4.4 billion US dollars, and the export was 684 million US dollars, up 10.04%. The industry's profit was 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. See Table 1 for the import of some machine tool tools in 2002.
From the perspective of product structure, China's CNC machine tool industry is also experiencing a period of best change in history. Last year, China produced more than 20,000 CNC machine tools, up 43% from 14,000 units in 2000. High-precision machine tools and large-scale machine tools also increased by 42% and 3.18% respectively. In 1992, there were only 4,200 CNC machine tools. In the past 10 years, China's CNC machine tools have increased five times. In terms of the variety of CNC machine tools, the proportion of popular CNC machine tools has increased from 10% in 1992 to 37% in 2002. This structural change shows that the overall quality of China's machine tool industry has been greatly improved and improved.
From the perspective of organizational structure, the composition of enterprise ownership in the Chinese machine tool industry has changed significantly. According to a random sample survey of 400 enterprises in 2001, there are 251 state-owned and collective enterprises, accounting for 63%. Others are private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, and even wholly foreign-owned enterprises. Compared with the 95-year survey, state-owned enterprises accounted for 93%. What is more telling of this change is that among the output value of these 400 enterprises, state-owned enterprises account for only 50.6%, profits only account for 23.4%, and fixed assets account for 79%. It can be seen from the changes in the composition of ownership that the current situation of China's machine tool industry is improving, and the changes in the system and mechanism caused by the reforms within the state-owned enterprises are the main factors of this condition.
From the perspective of the composition of market demand, the main demand in the past two years comes from the following three aspects:
(1) The electromechanical and equipment industries represented by the rapid development of the automobile industry have put forward high-quality, large-scale and constantly updated requirements for the machine tool industry. The output of automobiles this year will reach a record of 340-3.5 million units, 3 years ahead of schedule. To reach the targets of the "10th Five-Year Plan", the number of cars will reach 1.1 million, new models will continue to go offline, new joint ventures will continue to emerge, and industries such as automobiles will continue to be reorganized and reorganized, and equipment will be continuously updated and expanded. Therefore, the automobile industry has put forward a wide and large demand for the machine tool industry. According to the statistics of the three major autos and nine backbone factories, this year, it has invested 26.2 billion yuan in technological transformation, of which 34% of domestic equipment and 20% of funds. The investment in technological transformation of auto parts factories is also nearly 7.3 billion yuan, of which 4.2 billion yuan is related to the machine tool industry;
(2) The demand for the defense industry has gradually expanded and increased. The demand for defense industry, including aviation, aerospace, and weapons, has occupied a considerable proportion. According to the rough statistics of 29 machine tool factories, the demand for military industry accounts for the total contract amount. 37%, large parts are special, special and difficult to import or import goods are quite expensive, and a considerable part is to purchase ordinary CNC machine tools for equipment renewal. China's military industrial enterprises have not carried out large-scale and large scale for more than 20 years. And the higher level of transformation, according to the development of domestic and international situation, the transformation will be "in the ascendant", according to the survey of nine related companies, in the new purchase of machine tools, the number of domestic equipment accounted for 71.3%, value of 47%;
(3) The demand for private enterprises has increased by a large margin, and the difference in level and structure is more obvious. In the development of a new round of private enterprises, a large number of domestically produced equipment, especially domestically produced CNC. Precision machine tools, but a considerable number of private enterprises still use a large number of ordinary machine tools. In the survey of private enterprises in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong provinces, they invested 1.29 billion yuan in equipment investment, of which machine tools and molds accounted for 11.7 billion yuan. The number of domestically produced equipment accounts for 69%, and the value accounts for 52%.
In addition, due to the increase in equipment investment caused by the start of many key projects in the country, the market demand for machine tools has increased. Therefore, 2002 is another new development period for China's machine tool industry since 1992, but the level has improved and the composition is more reasonable. The development is relatively stable.
Eight, the characteristics and focus of market demand for machine tool products
The complete, high-efficiency, high-precision, high-reliability machining centers, gear processing machines, CNC machining production lines and key equipment required by the automobile and motorcycle industries represented by cars will account for a large proportion. In 2003, the equipment and traditional production lines required in the automotive industry and other industries have undergone qualitative changes. First of all, flexible production lines and complete sets of equipment consisting of CNC machine tools will become one of the key points. The characteristics of these production lines: First, high speed. The spindle speed is generally 8000-12000r/min, the feed rate is high, generally 40-60m/min, the swapping speed is fast, generally 2-3 seconds; the second is high reliability. MTBF is generally 500-600 hours; third is good set. These flexible wires not only require good fixtures and tools, but also good process software and control software. Fourth, high precision is required, and the consistency of product processing is good. In 2003, flexible machine tools were introduced for machine tools entering the automotive industry to ensure the diversification of automotive products; the complete set of processes to ensure the scale of automotive products.
Highly sophisticated, represented by aviation, aerospace, power generation, shipbuilding, metallurgy, and heavy machinery. Large-scale special equipment has become the focus of the second aspect of demand. These devices tend to have higher unit prices, special requirements, and greater difficulty. However, from the perspective of the total demand in the country, it has great advantages, accounting for more than 1/3 of the machine tool market. In particular, the demand for CNC gantry milling, CNC floor raking, and large-scale five-face processing equipment is large, and China's production capacity cannot meet this sudden increase in demand.
Multi-coordinates represented by processing of products such as mold weapons. High-precision, complex-faced processing equipment is the focus of the third demand. These equipments are mainly machining centers, turning centers, copy milling, forming mills, etc. with four coordinate linkages. These devices are characterized by special software functions and complex supporting technologies, which often affect the level of the whole machine. In addition, in order to improve the quality and scale efficiency of stamping parts of various molds as the mother body, various CNC presses in 2003 will increase slightly compared with last year.
The purchase of simple CNC machine tools represented by the private enterprise groups emerging from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong has become the fourth hot spot of demand. According to statistics, in 2003, private enterprises and family-integrated technology enterprises in the above-mentioned areas required about more than 16,000 simple CNC machine tools and other numerical control equipment. These devices are characterized by low price, special functional requirements, and easy operation. The equipment is updated at a faster rate and is a market with continuous development and great potential.
In short, there is no major change in the current demand for the machine tool market, but there are several major risks:
First of all, similar to the situation around 1992, the demand and output of ordinary machine tools are growing strangely, and the price competition in this area is increasing. The high-speed expansion of ordinary machine tools restricts and slows down the overall process level of users. At the same time, it has also slowed down the overall level of China's machine tool industry. More likely, it will cause a sudden drop in demand in the machine tool market and a large number of imports of foreign CNC products. This is a profound lesson for our machine tool industry.
Secondly, due to the expansion of China's machine tool market and the growth of demand in the past two years, this is in sharp contrast with the problems caused by the aging of equipment, personnel loss and low development and innovation caused by the difficulties of the Chinese machine tool industry in previous years. Management can't keep up with the problem of quality leakage, service gaps, and funding gaps. These problems are likely to erupt in 2003.
Thirdly, due to national policies such as interest subsidies, in recent years, the demand for machine tools in various fields has increased substantially, and this growth is risky. If the newly added production capacity is not rewarded and the national policy is weakened, the new one will be weakened. The policy orientation of the government is also likely to be adjusted.) The machine tool market may be saturated or the risk of sudden decline, especially the overall demand for the mitigation of large projects that the country’s unemployment rate is rising this year may also cause demand. Decline.
IX. Suggestions on the current development of the machine tool industry
The advantages and disadvantages mentioned above are an analysis and prediction for machine tool enterprises. In order to stabilize the development of the market and the survival of enterprises, the following suggestions are for reference.
First, don't blindly increase production capacity. The key to the level of the machine tool industry itself depends on the improvement of innovation ability, personnel quality and corporate quality. In recent years, some reforms and restructurings have had some initial results, which are hard to come by. In the face of increasing market demand, we must still look at the market and seek development steadily. We must grasp the front and the post (ie, grasp development, grasp sales, grasp quality, and grasp services) and carefully grasp the ability. If China wants to become a manufacturing market, not a processing market, the machine tool industry should also look at this issue correctly.
Second, we must attach great importance to quality and service. The machine tool industry is the first industry to propose a quality commitment statement. When the market improves, we pay more attention to quality and service, and we are more thoughtful and enthusiastic about users. A company's brand is often established when the market is good. It is often lost in a good period of the market. 2003 should be the quality year and service year for the machine tool industry.
Once again, we must continue to explore new service areas and expand exports. When the market is good, we will be able to open up new areas. I still recommend that companies in the machine tool industry should take advantage of technology and manufacturing, not just product advantages. Because the machine tool industry is a parent machine industry, we not only need to be a user's craftsman, but also a new technology incubator to continuously promote the industry. There are new developments.
Since 1993, China's CNC machine tool industry has entered an adjustment period. The lessons of history are profound. How to look at the situation of industrial development, there are currently two representative attitudes: one is excessive pessimism. It is believed that the numerical control machine tool industry faces too many problems, the historical burden is heavy, the liquidity is lacking, the product level is low, the market competitiveness is weak, and it is difficult to have the power to return to heaven; the other is blind waiting. It is believed that the CNC machine tool industry itself does not have big problems, but the objective environment has encountered temporary difficulties. As long as it persists, when the macro situation changes, it can reproduce its glory.
In fact, these two attitudes have a certain one-sidedness. We believe that the current situation of industrial development is tortuous, but it has certain inevitability. As long as we can grasp it, we can gradually step out of the trough and gradually enter a virtuous circle.
First, the basic situation of industrial development
Since the reform and opening up in China in the 1980s, the state has attached great importance to the development of numerical control technology and numerical control machine tools. Through the introduction of technology and scientific research, it has experienced the "6th Five-Year Plan" and "Seventh Five-Year Plan" introduction technology digestion and absorption, and the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" development The copyright CNC system, the commercialization and industrialization of the "Ninth Five-Year Plan", has laid a good foundation for the industrialization of numerical control technology and has made great progress. At present, China's numerical control technology has transitioned from the research and development stage to the promotion and application stage, and it is also the period from the closed system to the open system. Nowadays, a group of enterprises capable of producing CNC machine tools and CNC systems in batches can be produced. In the numerical control technology software, some single technologies are close to foreign standards.
There are more than 100 major CNC machine tool manufacturers in China, among which 42 are capable of mass production of CNC machine tools (30 state-owned enterprises, 5 private enterprises, 7 joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises), with an average annual output of 80-150 units, several The annual output of key enterprises can reach 1400-1700 units; there are 75 production enterprises of numerical control systems (including spindles and feed drive units); however, there are 8 enterprises with certain mass production. There are 3 enterprises in China, 2 private enterprises, 3 joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises. There are more than 300 enterprises producing CNC machine tools, including the following eight categories: machine tool auxiliary equipment; machine tool universal parts; machine tool hydraulic and pneumatic; machine tools Chemical products; machine tools; machine tool accessories; machine tool systems; abrasives, abrasives.
Second, the technical situation
China has established a good technical foundation for the industrialization of CNC machine tools through the introduction of technology, digestion and absorption, and scientific and technological research, and the development of independent copyright CNC systems. The newly developed 1300 varieties of CNC machine tools have a certain coverage. Most of the newly developed domestic CNC machine tools reached the mid-level of the 1980s, and some of them reached the international level in the 1990s, providing a number of high-level CNC machine tools for national key construction.
The development and production of CNC systems have also achieved certain results: 80 varieties have been newly developed. CNC system is the core technology of CNC machine tools. Its variety and quality directly affect the development of domestic CNC machine tools. Over the years, foreign developed countries have imposed an embargo policy on importing high-end CNC systems to me. Therefore, since the "Seventh Five-Year Plan", the state has always supported the development of the CNC system as a top priority. The CNC system with Chinese copyright has been developed, and some key technologies that have been blocked by China have been mastered. The system has laid the foundation for self-development and production. Most of the CNC machine tool supporting products have been produced, and the self-matching rate exceeds 60%.
A key breakthrough has been made in the key technologies affecting the development of China's CNC industry: in the aspect of numerical control systems, the initial structural transformation was first solved. At the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period, China did not have a clear framework for technical development, that is, the use of ASICs or a PC-based platform structure. During the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, through expert discussions, the relevant state departments clearly developed the CNC system based on the PC. Through the "Ninth Five-Year Plan", the framework has been initially completed. Secondly, the reliability index of the numerical control system is improved. The MTBF is 20,000 hours from 5,000 hours. This indicator makes the domestic CNC system reach the international advanced level and basically solves the high standard requirements of domestic users. Again, the technical problem of multi-coordinate linkage is solved. From the past three coordinate linkages, up to eight coordinates have been achieved, breaking the foreign technology restrictions on China. At the same time, China's domestic CNC system has already had mass production capacity, and the market brand is gradually established.
In the aspect of numerical control machine tools, the problem of the general identification method of reliability indicators is first solved. At the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan", the MTBF of China's CNC machine tools was only 200 hours. After several years of hard work, it has now reached 400 hours (500 hours abroad), with a growth rate of 100%. The spindle speed of the machining center increased from 400 rpm to 10,000 rpm, which solved the problem of importing a large number of foreign CNC machine tools due to the low key technical indicators. At present, the related key moment products of this technology have also been produced in small batches, such as built-in electric spindles. The coordinate feed rate reached 40 meters per minute from 15 meters per minute at the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" and reached the international level. The tool change speed of the machining center has reached 1.5-3 seconds from the end of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period of 5 to 8 seconds, which is also close to the world advanced level.
Third, the main problems in the development of the industry, the slow development of the industry is a superficial phenomenon
In a period of time, China's CNC machine tool products have relatively few varieties, and the development and delivery cycle is long. Because there is no development according to market demand, the batch size is not large, and other factors restrict, the quality is unstable, and the performance level is relatively high. A certain gap, reliability is a prominent quality crux, can not meet market demand, competitiveness is not strong, market share is low, software development investment is insufficient, the developed CNC system lacks a common software specification and support platform. Therefore, there is still a distance from serialization and commercialization. At present, such problems have begun to receive widespread attention and preliminary solutions. Slow industry adjustment is an internal reason
As early as the mid-1980s, China's machine tool industry was a “fatnyâ€. Many people in the industry appealed to “weight loss and strengthâ€, to adjust the structure, and to compress the production of ordinary products. But over the years, due to some illusions in the market and many companies focusing on immediate interests, the real three adjustments, namely: industry, product, organizational restructuring, no substantial progress. By 1992 and early 1993, the production of ordinary machine tools reached its peak. One general car could sell 60,000 yuan, and one ordinary milling machine could sell more than 100,000. Many enterprises and intermediate links also reached the peak. However, during this period, the company did not rely on the financial resources to grow up in time, but instead increased the output of ordinary machine tools, which made us lose the best adjustment opportunities. After 1993, the adjustment of the machine tool industry was in line with the law of market economy development. It was promoted by the tremendous power of conscious and passive, and the direction was correct. However, when the economic situation declined, it was inevitably painful. . The decline for five consecutive years, one is due to its own reasons for management, quality, product level, etc.; there are also reasons for accelerating the adjustment structure. In 1994, the total output value of machine tool industry (90-year constant price) reached 17.6 billion yuan, the output value reached 22 billion yuan, and the total output of machine tools reached 200,000 units. The proportion of ordinary machine tools and general-purpose cutting tools is as high as 93%. The proportion of CNC machine tools, special machine tools and various automatic lines is very small, and the domestic machine tool market share is only 38%. From 1993 to 1998, the output value of China's machine tool industry continued to decline. Due to market changes and structural adjustments, the market capacity was reduced to 75%. The total output value of China's machine tool industry is 14.96 billion yuan, of which metal processing machine tools are about 9 billion yuan, the market share is 47%, the total output of machine tools is only 100,000 units (gold cutting and forging), and in 100,000 machine tools. Among the sales, CNC machine tool automation production line and various advanced cutting tools reached 27.7%. It is precisely because of structural changes that it is possible to form a situation in which production declines and market share increases. To illustrate, this is a change that occurs after the machine tool industry adapts to market needs and adjusts itself.
Fourth, the slow establishment of policy and technical support system is an external factor
For more than 40 years, the Chinese government has devoted a lot of energy to the development of CNC machine tools. Financial and material resources have also introduced some support measures in the policy, which have played a significant role in promoting the development of CNC machine tools. We must use these policies.
However, in terms of policy support and mutual restraint, the necessary protection for domestic CNC machine tools is too thin, while foreign imports are exempt from two taxes, while domestic products rarely enjoy this. treatment. At the same time, because CNC machine tools require a high-level component specialization technology supporting system, and the overall level of China's industrial development can not meet the establishment of such a system, the state has no major measures for the establishment of such a system, so the CNC The development of the industry has not played a more powerful role.
V. Analysis of the impact of China's entry into the WTO on the development of China's CNC machine tool industry
The GATT considers it to be the basic code of the post-war international trade system and trade order. It is regarded by the State party as the only shortcut to develop its own economy. Negotiations on China’s resumption of the status of the GATT are also carried out for six years. In operation, China's economy has gradually integrated into the international cycle, and has undergone major changes from the domestic market structure and corporate survival environment, and market competition will become more intense.
1. Favorable impact: creating a good international environment for Chinese machine tool exports
In general, nearly 90% of China's machine tool exports are sold to North America, Hong Kong and Macao, and the remaining 100 countries and regions account for only 10% of exports. Joining the WTO now seems to enjoy the MFN status of all Contracting States; it can form a diversified and multilateral foreign trade pattern without discrimination; it is not subject to changes in the trading environment caused by non-economic factors; it breaks through the technological blockade of some countries against China; Trade disputes can also use the GATT multilateral dispute settlement mechanism to safeguard our economic and trade interests.
2. Favorable impact: promote product water quality and quality improvement
One of the difficulties in China's machine tool industry is the matching of CNC systems, servo systems, inspection systems, hydraulic and electrical components and components. With the opening of the country, companies can choose the best in the international scope, carry out international matching, and promote the improvement of product level and quality.
3. Favorable impact: favorable for the introduction of foreign capital and new technologies
China's huge market and cheap labor have laid the foundation for the combination and cooperation of foreign advanced CNC technology and mature management. Appropriate use of foreign technology and funds is conducive to the development of the company itself. After China's accession to the WTO, China will generally adopt internationally accepted economic and trade measures and legal protection standards, which will increase foreign investors' confidence in China's economic system and facilitate the introduction of foreign capital and new technologies. Favorable impact: help improve international competitiveness
Chinese enterprises participate in international competition in business decision-making and competitiveness China's foreign trade transparency will be significantly improved, enterprises can directly participate in foreign export business, can correctly and quickly grasp market information, business decision-making, and enhance competitiveness.
4. Favorable impact: conducive to the transformation of business management mechanism
The World Trade Organization is based on the market economy, and the reform of China's economic system is also aimed at establishing a socialist market economic system. To make China's economic operations conform to international practices means that the government needs to change its functions, which is conducive to the transformation of business management mechanisms.
6. Adverse effects on the development of CNC machine tools in China
According to the WTO principle, for China, it is beneficial to the import of foreign CNC machine tools. The number of imported CNC machine tools will further increase, and the market share of domestic CNC machine tools will be more difficult.
Since China will implement the principle of non-discrimination in import and export trade, that is, MFN status and national treatment in each contracting country. Such imported CNC machine tools in the domestic sales, purchase, transportation, distribution and domestic CNC machine tool products to implement uniform laws and regulations, do not implement different domestic taxes on imported CNC machine tools. For imported CNC machine tools, only tariffs can be used as the only means of protection. However, based on the principle of free trade, tariff protection is also required to be decremented, and the reduced tax rate is generally restricted, and should not be arbitrarily raised. If it is to be improved, it must also be given to the original negotiating country. Compensate with major interest countries. In particular, according to the principle of prohibiting the use of quantitative restrictions, quotas or import licenses may not be established or maintained to restrict or prohibit the importation of products from other Contracting States. As a result, low tariff and non-quota management are beneficial to the import of CNC machine tools from foreign manufacturers.
In addition, some governments use loans to assist the export of enterprises in the country. Most of these loans are designated to purchase CNC machine tools in the country. Most domestic-funded enterprises in the procurement of equipment do not pass the bidding, but the equipment in the scope of foreign investment is used. Factors can make a large number of foreign CNC machine tools enter China.
In the fierce market competition, the development situation of domestic CNC machine tools and CNC systems will be more severe. In order to protect the growth of its own numerical control industry, China basically does not rely on the regulation of tariff leverage to restrict imports (the tariff rate is very low, the tax rate of CNC machine tools is 9.7%, and the tax rate of numerical control devices is only 5%). ), there is no import license. Direct interventions such as import pricing, administrative examination and approval, and import planning, but the implementation of import restrictions on foreign machine tools that have already met the needs of domestic CNC machine tools and numerical control devices, effectively controlled Chinese state-owned enterprises to import foreign CNC in the 1980s. The magnitude of the product. However, since 1990, due to the rapid increase in the proportion of imported equipment of domestic foreign-funded enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises investing in and importing CNC machine tools for their own use are exempt from import duties and value-added tax according to the current foreign investment laws and regulations of the state. Therefore, in recent years, The import volume of CNC machine tools has risen sharply. At present, China is already the second largest importer of CNC machine tools in the world.
The import of CNC machine tools in China has increased sharply in the past ten years since the beginning of the WTO accession negotiations. In 2002, the number of imported CNC machine tools increased by more than 10 times compared with 1991, from 1,209 units to 25,097 units, and the amount of exchanges increased by more than 10 times. From US$130 million to US$1.8 billion, the value of imported CNC machine tools in 2002 was 5.2 times that of domestic CNC machine tools. Such high import growth rate and serious trade deficit have caused serious impact on the development of China's CNC machine tool industry. The survival of the developing CNC machine tool industry in China is suffering a huge impact. Under this situation, it is difficult to get out of the predicament by relying on the industry's own efforts and efforts. It must be supported and protected by the state. Get out of the woods and seek survival.
7. Current situation and characteristics of China's machine tool industry
Table 1 Table of Imports of Some Machine Tool Tools in 2002
From the perspective of the industry as a whole, China's machine tool industry is experiencing the best period of development since 1992. Since the recovery growth began in 1999, the total industrial output has increased by double digits for four consecutive years. Last year, the total output value of the machine tool industry was 54.8 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year; the import was 4.4 billion US dollars, and the export was 684 million US dollars, up 10.04%. The industry's profit was 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. See Table 1 for the import of some machine tool tools in 2002.
From the perspective of product structure, China's CNC machine tool industry is also experiencing a period of best change in history. Last year, China produced more than 20,000 CNC machine tools, up 43% from 14,000 units in 2000. High-precision machine tools and large-scale machine tools also increased by 42% and 3.18% respectively. In 1992, there were only 4,200 CNC machine tools. In the past 10 years, China's CNC machine tools have increased five times. In terms of the variety of CNC machine tools, the proportion of popular CNC machine tools has increased from 10% in 1992 to 37% in 2002. This structural change shows that the overall quality of China's machine tool industry has been greatly improved and improved.
From the perspective of organizational structure, the composition of enterprise ownership in the Chinese machine tool industry has changed significantly. According to a random sample survey of 400 enterprises in 2001, there are 251 state-owned and collective enterprises, accounting for 63%. Others are private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, and even wholly foreign-owned enterprises. Compared with the 95-year survey, state-owned enterprises accounted for 93%. What is more telling of this change is that among the output value of these 400 enterprises, state-owned enterprises account for only 50.6%, profits only account for 23.4%, and fixed assets account for 79%. It can be seen from the changes in the composition of ownership that the current situation of China's machine tool industry is improving, and the changes in the system and mechanism caused by the reforms within the state-owned enterprises are the main factors of this condition.
From the perspective of the composition of market demand, the main demand in the past two years comes from the following three aspects:
(1) The electromechanical and equipment industries represented by the rapid development of the automobile industry have put forward high-quality, large-scale and constantly updated requirements for the machine tool industry. The output of automobiles this year will reach a record of 340-3.5 million units, 3 years ahead of schedule. To reach the targets of the "10th Five-Year Plan", the number of cars will reach 1.1 million, new models will continue to go offline, new joint ventures will continue to emerge, and industries such as automobiles will continue to be reorganized and reorganized, and equipment will be continuously updated and expanded. Therefore, the automobile industry has put forward a wide and large demand for the machine tool industry. According to the statistics of the three major autos and nine backbone factories, this year, it has invested 26.2 billion yuan in technological transformation, of which 34% of domestic equipment and 20% of funds. The investment in technological transformation of auto parts factories is also nearly 7.3 billion yuan, of which 4.2 billion yuan is related to the machine tool industry;
(2) The demand for the defense industry has gradually expanded and increased. The demand for defense industry, including aviation, aerospace, and weapons, has occupied a considerable proportion. According to the rough statistics of 29 machine tool factories, the demand for military industry accounts for the total contract amount. 37%, large parts are special, special and difficult to import or import goods are quite expensive, and a considerable part is to purchase ordinary CNC machine tools for equipment renewal. China's military industrial enterprises have not carried out large-scale and large scale for more than 20 years. And the higher level of transformation, according to the development of domestic and international situation, the transformation will be "in the ascendant", according to the survey of nine related companies, in the new purchase of machine tools, the number of domestic equipment accounted for 71.3%, value of 47%;
(3) The demand for private enterprises has increased by a large margin, and the difference in level and structure is more obvious. In the development of a new round of private enterprises, a large number of domestically produced equipment, especially domestically produced CNC. Precision machine tools, but a considerable number of private enterprises still use a large number of ordinary machine tools. In the survey of private enterprises in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong provinces, they invested 1.29 billion yuan in equipment investment, of which machine tools and molds accounted for 11.7 billion yuan. The number of domestically produced equipment accounts for 69%, and the value accounts for 52%.
In addition, due to the increase in equipment investment caused by the start of many key projects in the country, the market demand for machine tools has increased. Therefore, 2002 is another new development period for China's machine tool industry since 1992, but the level has improved and the composition is more reasonable. The development is relatively stable.
Eight, the characteristics and focus of market demand for machine tool products
The complete, high-efficiency, high-precision, high-reliability machining centers, gear processing machines, CNC machining production lines and key equipment required by the automobile and motorcycle industries represented by cars will account for a large proportion. In 2003, the equipment and traditional production lines required in the automotive industry and other industries have undergone qualitative changes. First of all, flexible production lines and complete sets of equipment consisting of CNC machine tools will become one of the key points. The characteristics of these production lines: First, high speed. The spindle speed is generally 8000-12000r/min, the feed rate is high, generally 40-60m/min, the swapping speed is fast, generally 2-3 seconds; the second is high reliability. MTBF is generally 500-600 hours; third is good set. These flexible wires not only require good fixtures and tools, but also good process software and control software. Fourth, high precision is required, and the consistency of product processing is good. In 2003, flexible machine tools were introduced for machine tools entering the automotive industry to ensure the diversification of automotive products; the complete set of processes to ensure the scale of automotive products.
Highly sophisticated, represented by aviation, aerospace, power generation, shipbuilding, metallurgy, and heavy machinery. Large-scale special equipment has become the focus of the second aspect of demand. These devices tend to have higher unit prices, special requirements, and greater difficulty. However, from the perspective of the total demand in the country, it has great advantages, accounting for more than 1/3 of the machine tool market. In particular, the demand for CNC gantry milling, CNC floor raking, and large-scale five-face processing equipment is large, and China's production capacity cannot meet this sudden increase in demand.
Multi-coordinates represented by processing of products such as mold weapons. High-precision, complex-faced processing equipment is the focus of the third demand. These equipments are mainly machining centers, turning centers, copy milling, forming mills, etc. with four coordinate linkages. These devices are characterized by special software functions and complex supporting technologies, which often affect the level of the whole machine. In addition, in order to improve the quality and scale efficiency of stamping parts of various molds as the mother body, various CNC presses in 2003 will increase slightly compared with last year.
The purchase of simple CNC machine tools represented by the private enterprise groups emerging from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong has become the fourth hot spot of demand. According to statistics, in 2003, private enterprises and family-integrated technology enterprises in the above-mentioned areas required about more than 16,000 simple CNC machine tools and other numerical control equipment. These devices are characterized by low price, special functional requirements, and easy operation. The equipment is updated at a faster rate and is a market with continuous development and great potential.
In short, there is no major change in the current demand for the machine tool market, but there are several major risks:
First of all, similar to the situation around 1992, the demand and output of ordinary machine tools are growing strangely, and the price competition in this area is increasing. The high-speed expansion of ordinary machine tools restricts and slows down the overall process level of users. At the same time, it has also slowed down the overall level of China's machine tool industry. More likely, it will cause a sudden drop in demand in the machine tool market and a large number of imports of foreign CNC products. This is a profound lesson for our machine tool industry.
Secondly, due to the expansion of China's machine tool market and the growth of demand in the past two years, this is in sharp contrast with the problems caused by the aging of equipment, personnel loss and low development and innovation caused by the difficulties of the Chinese machine tool industry in previous years. Management can't keep up with the problem of quality leakage, service gaps, and funding gaps. These problems are likely to erupt in 2003.
Thirdly, due to national policies such as interest subsidies, in recent years, the demand for machine tools in various fields has increased substantially, and this growth is risky. If the newly added production capacity is not rewarded and the national policy is weakened, the new one will be weakened. The policy orientation of the government is also likely to be adjusted.) The machine tool market may be saturated or the risk of sudden decline, especially the overall demand for the mitigation of large projects that the country’s unemployment rate is rising this year may also cause demand. Decline.
IX. Suggestions on the current development of the machine tool industry
The advantages and disadvantages mentioned above are an analysis and prediction for machine tool enterprises. In order to stabilize the development of the market and the survival of enterprises, the following suggestions are for reference.
First, don't blindly increase production capacity. The key to the level of the machine tool industry itself depends on the improvement of innovation ability, personnel quality and corporate quality. In recent years, some reforms and restructurings have had some initial results, which are hard to come by. In the face of increasing market demand, we must still look at the market and seek development steadily. We must grasp the front and the post (ie, grasp development, grasp sales, grasp quality, and grasp services) and carefully grasp the ability. If China wants to become a manufacturing market, not a processing market, the machine tool industry should also look at this issue correctly.
Second, we must attach great importance to quality and service. The machine tool industry is the first industry to propose a quality commitment statement. When the market improves, we pay more attention to quality and service, and we are more thoughtful and enthusiastic about users. A company's brand is often established when the market is good. It is often lost in a good period of the market. 2003 should be the quality year and service year for the machine tool industry.
Once again, we must continue to explore new service areas and expand exports. When the market is good, we will be able to open up new areas. I still recommend that companies in the machine tool industry should take advantage of technology and manufacturing, not just product advantages. Because the machine tool industry is a parent machine industry, we not only need to be a user's craftsman, but also a new technology incubator to continuously promote the industry. There are new developments.
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