Analysis on the deterioration of overcapacity in China's machinery industry

Abstract Due to the shortage of orders, the current overcapacity situation of China's machinery industry is highlighted. Affected by the slowdown in investment in the user industry and the turmoil in the export market, the market demand for mechanical products has shown a weak trend since 2011, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory is basically 20%.

Affected by insufficient orders, the current overcapacity situation in China's machinery industry is highlighted. Affected by the slowdown in investment in the user industry and the turmoil in the export market, the market demand for mechanical products has shown a weak trend since 2011, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory is basically at a high level of around 20%, much higher than the previous two years. s level. At the same time, the growth rate of enterprise orders has dropped significantly. The statistics of key survey enterprises in the machinery industry show that the cumulative year-on-year growth of cumulative orders has dropped to around 6%, which is significantly lower than the level of more than 30% in the same period of last year. Insufficient ordering further exacerbates the contradiction of overcapacity.

This situation will continue or worsen in 2012. Cai Weici, vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the overcapacity situation of the machinery industry will exist for a long time. The growth rate of major economic indicators of the machinery industry this year will be less than that of 2011. Wang Yanmei, an associate researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the overcapacity of China's machinery industry is mainly characterized by structural excess, and the adjustment of demand structure is faster than the change of supply structure.

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