Wood market prices will be in a narrow range of shocks

Uncertain foundation of recovery and timely fluctuations in sales

In the post-crisis era, the road to recovery has been thorny and hidden. At present, the foundation of the recovery is still not stable, and the wood and bamboo industry is difficult to maintain a sustained growth trend. In the next half year and a year, the overall performance may be approximately the same level as in the first half of 2010.

Real estate control policies increase the number of variables. In the first half of this year, the Chinese government introduced a series of policies called "combination boxing" to curb the rapid rise in housing prices. Affected by this, the wait-and-see sentiment in the property market throughout the country is filled. This will exert a certain amount of pressure on the domestic furniture and decoration industry. In particular, the market demand for raw materials such as domestic veneer, hibiscus, bamboo, and wood-based panels may show weak growth. situation. Although the regulation and control policies have short-term adverse effects, they will help adjust the structure, promote the long-term virtuous circle of industries such as real estate and home furnishing, and effectively promote the steady development of the wood and bamboo industry.

The market demand at home and abroad gradually stabilized. Since the end of last year, the entire wood and bamboo industry has been getting better, and the performance of a few companies has even caught up with the level before the crisis, but this situation is difficult to run through the year. On the one hand, July and August are the traditional off-season, and the wood and bamboo market has entered an annual cyclical trough; on the other hand, various debt crises occur frequently, foreign merchants are cautious, and large-scale purchases are not always the case. The performance of products such as plywood, wood stencils, and domestic splints, MDF plates, large core boards, and technical veneers constitutes a significant drag.

However, in September, Guangdong's Big Three Furniture Fair will bring a lot of business opportunities to many domestic bamboo and bamboo processing companies, and the sales season for the wood and bamboo industry will also be opened. Imported veneer, imported hibiscus, especially European and American non-wood, bamboo and bamboo performance It will get strong support, such as North American Red Oak, White Oak, Black Walnut, and the best-selling varieties represented by European Beech remain strong. At the same time, the domestic real estate, home furnishing, decoration, handicrafts and other industries will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season of consumption. The sales of all types of domestic wood and bamboo materials are expected to reach the level of the first half of the year. Therefore, the demand situation in the second half of the year is mixed with both opportunities and challenges, and the wood and bamboo market will not fluctuate drastically.

Wood bamboo sales pattern has undergone new changes. As the market demand changes, the sales pattern of wood and bamboo market will have new features: First, environmental protection products are more popular. After the Copenhagen conference, the concept of low-carbon and environmental protection was highly respected, and the potential for consumption of environmentally friendly wood and bamboo products became increasingly prominent. The performance of products with extremely low formaldehyde content such as bamboo materials, E0 and E1 artificial boards, and Fushen handmade veneer adhesives will be extremely low. Maintain a continuous growth trend. The second is that the medium and low price materials continue to sell well. Compared with high-priced expensive varieties and raw materials that have grown too much, quality and cheap veneer, wood and bamboo produced in the Northeast, Myanmar, Southeast Asia and other places will become more and more popular, which will help the processing of wood and bamboo. Enterprises reduce costs and activate funds. The third is the recent emergence of "popular emergence." For example, South American balsa (with a weight of 80 to 150 kg/m3) is suitable for fishing gear, rackets, and models. According to the introduction of distributors of Indus Linmu in Dongguan Xingye Market, according to the current customer demand, the balsa market will continue to expand and sales will not fall below the first half of the year. Fourth, timber varieties returned after value regained favor. After the crisis, many timber prices have been in a reasonable location. For example, the demand for Shapiri and Aoguman in Africa has continued to climb, and has become a hot commodity in the market.

The price may be in a narrow range

After a few months of recoveries, the rebound in the price of wood and bamboo raw materials has been exhausted. The basis for continued price increases does not exist. In the second half of the year, the price of most products is likely to be dominated by the price of the first half of the year, showing a narrow wave of momentum.

Larger increase, the downstream market is unbearable. From autumn of 2009 to May of this year, the price of lumber has risen steadily, and prices have risen one after another. The price of a few varieties has reached a record high. However, it is difficult to raise the price of wood products accordingly. The rapid recovery of costs has reduced the profitability and survivability of the wood processing industry. If raw materials continue to rise, the market will not be able to afford it. In other words, in the current economic situation, most raw material prices are at a bottleneck, and it is difficult to continue the upward trend.

The inflection point is now in place, and the pressure for high adjustment has increased. After a long period of increase, there is an adjustment demand within the timber market. Especially under the premise that the supply of various materials basically meets the industrial demand, some timber-producing countries begin to lower the price of logs; in addition, due to the impact of the appreciation of ***, Europe and the United States and other places The cost of wood fell again, creating conditions for the price reduction of domestic imported wood.

The cost is high, and the price decline of bamboo and bamboo is limited. Since last year, labor costs, fuel costs, and other costs have continued to increase, and the overall cost of the wood and bamboo industry has been operating at a high level. The high cost will, to a certain extent, support the existing prices of raw materials, even in the price adjustment period, can also reduce the price of related products. Therefore, if there is a trend of price cuts for raw materials, the decline will not be significant. It is worth mentioning that due to China's abundant bamboo resources and high processing level, it has fully grasped the bargaining power of bamboo materials and bamboo products, and bamboo materials prices will not be significantly adjusted.

Supply and demand are stable, and product prices tend to be less volatile. After the economic recovery, the demand is rapidly magnified and the timber market is facing a situation of long-supplied supply that exceeds demand, and the prices of most varieties are boosted. Nowadays, wood production areas have rapidly expanded their production capacity and substantially increased their supply. The problem of tight supply has been effectively resolved. The situation of gradual supply and demand, which is gradually moving towards balance, will effectively support the maintenance of a steady level of raw material prices. It can be seen that the ups and downs and the narrow range of shocks will become the normal operating characteristics of the raw material prices in the second half of the year.

Long-term rigid demand has a large market potential

The wood and bamboo industry is a resource industry, and the business climate is directly affected by the environment. The road to recovery in the future will remain uneven. However, with the stabilization of China's property market and the new rural construction, urban infrastructure construction, and the transformation of old urban areas, the rigid demand for China's wood and bamboo industry is still huge, and the market outlook is still promising. Related companies should base themselves on their own realities, actively seek change, and seek a broader space for development.

Relative shortage of wood and bamboo resources will be the norm in the industry. Raw material operators need to provide a wide source of wood and bamboo, such as vigorous planting of fast-growing forests, introduction of wood and bamboo from South America and Oceania to meet domestic demand, and efforts to explore new varieties of lightwood. With the asymmetric marketing approach, it will seize market opportunities and open up new areas of consumption. At the same time, effectively and effectively improve the cutting process, improve the management level, improve the sales structure, and win the favor of the market with better products and services. It should be noted that in the second half of the year, the risk of wood and bamboo trade will increase. Operators should not blindly follow the trend and chase after the sell-off. They should carefully inspect the market, reasonably purchase sources, and rationally manage the raw material trade.

All along, the furniture, flooring, doors and windows, and decoration and other processing industries have the drawbacks of management confusion, backward technology, and lack of brands. Related companies should use the current recovery period to improve their structure, innovative skills, improve management, and expand markets. Industrial competitiveness, out of the vicious circle of homogenous competition and low-price competition, reducing the dependence on the traditional market, and rationally planning the industrial layout of the entire industry. In particular, the bamboo industry can take the form of association guidance, enterprise marriage, etc., improve the industrial layout, realize the complementary advantages of resources and technology among regions, form a new situation in the industry with characteristic management and encourage innovation, and make bamboo industry in China modernized and internationalized. basis.