Chemical industry ** market is good

Oil prices oscillated upwards, but petrochemical prices did not extend last week's gains. The reason is that there is a general oversupply in the industry and weak demand, and the cost support is not enough to bring about a sustained rise. The short-term recommendation is to focus on trading opportunities in related products of the petrochemical industry chain. The medium and long-term recommendations focus on the demand rigidness, the identified civil explosions, intermediates, and new materials industries. We recommend Lianhua Technology, Yantai Wanhua, Winbond Pharmaceuticals, Dongtan Technology, Gaomeng New Materials and Zhejiang Longsheng. Key points: Chemical product prices: Weak and weak.

Of the 122 chemical products we track, 29 varieties rose this week, and the proportion of rises decreased from 33.61% in the previous week to 23.77%, and the number of declines was 36. The percentage of declines increased from 21.31% in the previous week to 29.51%. Chemical product prices fell weakly. This week's increase of more than 5% of the products are epichlorohydrin, acrylonitrile, international urea, cyclohexanone, cotton linters, ethylene international, aniline, phenol; more than 5% drop in products acetic acid, raw salt, fluorite powder.

Crude oil: International oil prices oscillated upward. WTI: $87.10/bbl, +3.14%; BRENT: $102.40/bbl, +4.29%. The main factors influencing the rise of international oil prices are: China's GDP growth rate is in line with previous analyst expectations, and it means that economic growth is stable; further US sanctions against Iran have triggered supply concerns. We believe that the recent market concerns have returned to geopolitics. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced further sanctions against Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic proliferation system, and confirmed a number of Iranian companies and banks that intend to circumvent sanctions. . It is recommended that the market outlook continue to focus on Iran and European debt issues.

Cyclohexanone (East China): 11,300 yuan / ton, up 9.18%. The domestic market for cyclohexanone continued to rise this week, and the supply of some factories was tight. The main reason is that: the pre-market is not good, traders low-cost shipments digested most of the inventory, and the recent price of raw materials** has risen. However, due to the fact that the next march is still relatively light, the actual transaction is not much. We believe that under the pressure of cost pressure, the price of cyclohexanone will continue to rise, but due to the pressure of demand, the magnitude of the increase will need further observation.

Aniline (Eastern China): 9,500 yuan/ton, up 6.15%. This week, the price of aniline has risen compared with last week. There are two main reasons: one is the increase in the price of raw material aniline; the other is that the previous aniline manufacturers have more parking and the inventory is not high. The price of raw materials** is still expected to rise. In the short term, the price of aniline is expected to continue to rise. However, from a long-term perspective, there are about 370,000 tons of newly-installed cars in October-November, and downstream MDI equipment manufacturers mainly produce aniline, and the price of aniline will mainly be consolidated. Phenol (Eastern China): RMB 10,900/ton, up 5.83%. Phenol prices continued to rise this week. As for raw materials, ** Quotes are also good. With respect to installation, Sinopec Tianjin Petrochemical's 350,000-ton/year phenol-based phenolic compounding plan is scheduled to be completed from the end of August to the beginning of October, and will result in a reduction of domestic phenol production by about 20,000 tons. However, the current downstream demand is still weak, the factory is more resistant to high prices of phenol, many factors unfavorable phenol prices continue to rise. We believe that the consolidation of phenol prices in the future will not preclude a slight increase.