China's coal imports have basically stagnated Japan's earthquake or pushed up international prices

A large coal trader revealed on March 23 that some Australian suppliers of thermal coal and coking coal have suspended offers from Chinese importers. He is worried that after the 9th-level strong earthquake in Japan, the expansion of energy import demand may affect China's coal imports in the third quarter of this year. “In the context of tight supply, Australian suppliers will give priority to the needs of long-term agreements such as Japan and South Korea.” The source said that Chinese importers have flexible spot trading models that are sensitive to price changes and are difficult to fight in the moment. To the source of supply. A number of large importers surveyed have recently stopped their coal imports. Taking coking coal as an example, considering the factors such as freight and tax rate, traders importing Australian coking coal, which is about 500 yuan per ton more than the purchase of Shanxi coking coal of similar quality. The price difference of 6000 kilocalories of coal is also About 100 yuan. An official in charge of coal transportation coordination in Guangdong Province said that coal imports in Guangdong Province had dropped by about 50% in February compared with the same period of last year. “I initially couldn’t believe this data.” This also directly led to coal stocks in Guangdong Province. A sharp drop began to appear. The person is worried that if the weak situation of coal imports in March and April continues, the coastal provinces represented by Guangdong may face staged and structural tensions in the “peak summer” season. After all, the domestic coal railway capacity has not yet been Substantial improvement, the bottleneck of the North Coal South Movement still exists. He said that the forthcoming new year's Japan-Macao thermal coal negotiations will set the tone for global coal prices this year, which will also be the most critical factor affecting China's coal imports this year. Trade Turning According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, China's coal imports in February were only 6.76 million tons, a decrease of 47.6%, and 6.76 million tons was the lowest monthly import since April 2009. In the same period, the export volume rebounded. In February, China's coal export volume was 1.76 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons, an increase of 8.5%. Guangdong Asia-Pacific Energy First, one of the largest coal importers in China, said on March 24 that the price factor is a direct factor in the reversal of coal trade. Although the company has received quotations from Australian importers, the cost of importing various types of coal has been more than a few tens of dollars to hundreds of yuan from the purchase of Shanxi. The company's coal imports have basically stagnated. Changes in coal exports also come from prices. A member of the Minmetals Group, one of the four coal exporters in China, said that the Australian flood at the beginning of the year caused the import of Australian coal to be affected. Some purchases of Japan and South Korea turned to China, and the current export prices of coking coal and other varieties were more attractive. He judged that in the next few months, China Coal, Shenhua and other export-qualified companies will increase their exports to Japan. In fact, shortly after the earthquake in Japan, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the second batch of coal export quotas for the year. The total coal export quota for 2011 was 38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49%, including the first batch of quotas of 1800. Ten thousand tons were issued to four export enterprises at the end of December 2010. After the coastal coal is tense, the 9-level strong earthquake in Japan, there is still controversy about how long the energy demand can be started. Chen Liang, a coal industry analyst at Huatai United Securities, said on March 24 that in the medium and long term, the launch of Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction demand may increase energy demand, especially in the context of the public’s fear of nuclear power, coal-fired power generation may increase, which will drive gas. The demand for thermal coal has increased. Coal independent analyst Shu Dafeng believes that Japan will increase the intensity of overseas coal procurement in the near future. Coal arrival time may be determined by the recovery of port operations, but the import intention of spot purchase is expected to be reached in the near future. He said that there have been reports that Japan has begun to seek more natural gas and coal imports from overseas. "The continued rise in international coal prices seems to be difficult to avoid," said Li Ting, a coal analyst of China Merchants' Circulation Productivity. Although the Japan-Australia thermal coal negotiations are expected to be slightly delayed due to the earthquake in Japan, the current market expectations are expected, and the pricing for the new year may be At $120/ton or more. The aforementioned Guangdong officials believe that once the Japan-Australia negotiations determine the tone of global coal price increases, China's coal imports in the next three quarters are bound to be affected, which may mean the peak period of coal consumption in June-August, the coastal provinces will Facing the staged and structural electric coal tension. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, about 20% of Guangdong's 150 million tons of coal consumed in 2010 comes from the support of imported coal. Shu Dafeng also said that the estimated annual coal consumption of the seven coastal provinces and cities in China is about 800 million tons. Based on the import volume of 160 million tons, imported coal accounts for about 20% of the coal consumption in these provinces. The reduction in imports means that domestic coal is needed to fill this gap. Shu Dafeng said that according to the current price trend, China's imported coal this year may be reduced to about 100 million tons, which means that the southeastern coastal provinces will need to transfer 60 million to 80 million tons of coal from Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other coal-producing provinces. coal. Although the coal-producing provinces such as Shaanxi are vigorously promoting the merger and reorganization of coal enterprises, “the output itself will not become a problem,” Shu Dafeng said. The difficulty lies in the fact that nearly 100 million tons of coal will occupy 100 million tons of railway capacity, and the current capacity bottleneck may It will cause coal shortage in coastal provinces. In fact, the decline in coal imports in Guangdong Province in February has been immediately reflected in the province's coal stocks. The inventory of China's important coal import port in Guangzhou in late March has been greatly reduced from 2.9 million tons at the peak to 2.1 million tons. The number of days of coal storage in power plants in Guangdong Province has also dropped from more than 20 days to the current 17 days. .  

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