China's photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve the level of Internet access for industrial and commercial use in 2014. In 2018, the residential level will be used to access the Internet, and in 2021, the power generation side will be connected to the Internet. The above predictions can be found in the "China's Photovoltaic Leveling Price Roadmap" (hereinafter referred to as the "Road Map"). The “Road Map†was jointly completed by the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association Renewable Energy Committee and the China Renewable Energy Enterprise Club, and was released in Beijing on August 12. Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that with the further improvement of technology and the comprehensive localization of equipment, the initial investment in China's PV system will drop to 12,000 yuan/kW by 2015. The cost of generating electricity will also be less than 1 yuan / kWh. The initial assumption of increasing the subsidy to support the "road map" of affordable Internet access is that in 2010, China's grid-connected photovoltaic system initial investment was 20,000 yuan / kW, and fell at an annual rate of 8%. At this rate, in 2015, China's grid-connected PV system cost will drop to 12,000 yuan / kW. In 2020, it will be further reduced to 10,000 yuan / kW. At this time, the corresponding power generation cost will be 0.60 yuan / kWh. At the same time, China's conventional power generation online price is 0.34 yuan / kWh, an annual increase of 6%. According to the data provided by the Road Map, the average price of China's industrial and commercial electricity in 2009 was 0.81 yuan / kWh. By 2014, the price of industrial and commercial electricity will exceed the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation, and the first to achieve parity online. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said yesterday that “the real large-scale use will start after the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decrease and the net price on the power generation side will be realized by 2020.†Before this year, China’s photovoltaics The policy support is mainly reflected in the bidding of the concession project of the National Energy Administration and the Golden Sun Project with the Ministry of Finance as the main body. Among them, the National Energy Administration conducted two rounds of PV concession project bidding in 2009 and 2010. However, the bid price for these two rounds of bidding is considered too low by the industry, and it is difficult for companies to make a profit. On July 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission announced the on-grid tariff policy for photovoltaic power generation. This move is regarded by the industry as a major measure for the country's over-the-counter PV support. The National Development and Reform Commission's notice on July 24 also mentioned that in the future, "the timely adjustment of factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress," the benchmark price of photovoltaic power generation. Wu Dacheng, deputy director and secretary-general of the Photovoltaic Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, previously mentioned that the design of the fixed-rate tariff on the Internet was originally based on expanding the sales and production scale of photovoltaic products, and through technological advancement and market competition. The cost of it has been declining, that is, through the subsidy mechanism to promote the early arrival of the era of cheap Internet. "I think this range should continue to decline, otherwise it will lose its meaning." "The photovoltaic industry needs big waves" The "road map" data shows that China's photovoltaic power generation in 2010 is more economically reasonable and tax-included according to the internal rate of return of 8%. The on-grid price should be 1.45 yuan / kWh; even if the investment is greatly reduced, the internal rate of return will be reduced to 6%, and the on-grid price should still be 1.173 yuan / kWh. Therefore, China's current 1.15 yuan / kWh and the subsequent 1 yuan / kWh on-grid price can only be profitable in Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang, Ningxia and other provinces with better lighting conditions. “China supports the photovoltaic industry, but the price of electricity is not too high. In fact, it is hoped that the photovoltaic industry will achieve market-oriented big waves.†Meng Xianyu said that some large backbone component companies in China have been able to compress the production cost of 1 watt component to Below 1 dollar. But China's photovoltaic SMEs are also numerous. Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Huatai United Securities Power Equipment and New Energy Industry, said that there are now hundreds of PV companies in China. The scale is not very large, there is no advantage in technology, it may be squeezed out, and finally there are only 20 or 30 companies in the entire industry chain. At the same time, China is still raising its future PV installed capacity. Xinhua Overseas Finance quoted the news on the 15th that by the end of 2011, China may increase the installed capacity of solar power from 900MW in 2010 to 2000MW. Last Friday, Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed that the 2011 Golden Sun Project was launched in the near future with a scale of 600MW.
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