Abstract It is estimated that by 2020 China's shale gas production may increase to approximately 61 billion cubic meters. This figure is more than double the general forecast and may be the most optimistic estimate of China's shale gas outlook so far. The past five years, the energy market
It is estimated that by 2020 China's shale gas production may increase to about 61 billion cubic meters. This figure is more than double the general forecast and may be the most optimistic estimate of China's shale gas outlook so far. The biggest news in the energy market over the past five years has been the surge in US shale gas production. Increasing the level of energy self-sufficiency can revitalize the US industry and revive the economy that is still recovering from the aftermath of the financial crisis. After the United States, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), China has the world's largest shale gas reserves, exceeding US reserves. We conducted a survey of commercial shale gas conditions in China by interviewing regulators and domestic and foreign operators, as well as observing first-hand field progress. The survey results show that China is expected to become the next US in terms of shale gas production.
It is estimated that by 2020 China's shale gas production may increase to about 61 billion cubic meters. This figure is more than double the general forecast and may be the most optimistic estimate of China's shale gas outlook so far. To boost the surge in shale gas production, we expect to invest up to $60 billion from now until 2020. To make it more intuitive, let's make a comparison. This investment is about 30% higher than the total capital expenditure of China's energy giants in the past seven years.
By 2030, shale gas will become China's largest source of natural gas supply. This will help reduce China's dependence on natural gas imports. It is expected that the proportion of natural gas imports will fall from the highest value of 40% in 2016-18 to 25%, greatly reducing its dependence on neighboring resources. This also supports the government's promotion of the use of natural gas and the reduction of the use of highly polluting fuels, especially coal. Our research shows that by 2020, the share of natural gas and non-fossil fuels in China's energy consumption should increase from the current 15% to 24%.
The recent boom in shale gas in the United States is inseparable from the support of the government. The legislation passed in 1978 lifted the regulation of natural gas prices and attracted small and flexible US private energy companies to invest in shale gas development throughout the 1980s. These small companies with the necessary professional skills were subsequently acquired by large entities at the beginning of this century. After the entry of large operators, US shale gas production grew at an annual rate of 19% in 2002-05, and the average annual growth rate since 2005 has reached 43%. US shale gas production is currently about 265 billion cubic meters, accounting for 40% of the total US gas supply, while in 2002 the share of shale gas was only 2%.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, China has 32 trillion cubic meters of shale gas resources, which is 68% higher than the United States. The forecast of the Ministry of Land and Resources of China is relatively conservative, estimated at 25 trillion cubic meters, still 32% higher than US reserves. Factors affecting the development of shale gas may include: more complex geological conditions lead to increased production costs; higher population density, limiting the scope of drilling; China's natural gas industry is regulated; lack of technical expertise; To overcome these challenges, China is not only imitating the United States from a technical perspective, but is also learning about its policies, such as fiscal incentives for shale gas, measures to attract foreign investment, and relaxation of controls on natural gas prices. As of now, these policies are showing signs of success. China has also demonstrated the nature of entrepreneurs that respond to their own unique challenges. For example, if operators can make the best use of local resources, the high cost of harsh terrain can be reduced by as much as 50%. Terrain also stimulates innovation, such as a petroleum service company inventing a folding water tank. China also has some advantages over the United States. These include: financial support from large state-owned oil companies (NOCs), huge shale resource bases, squeezing huge gas demand, and US experience, which will help reduce development time.
The main beneficiaries of China's shale gas boom are its upstream producers, as their natural gas reserves and profits will surge when commercial production begins. Local oil service and equipment companies will also benefit from positive capital investments. For distributors, strong sales growth will be a catalyst for business growth. We hope that the biggest beneficiaries are the Chinese people, who will benefit directly from cleaner, cheaper fuels and indirectly benefit from the economic stability brought about by energy self-sufficiency.
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