China will once again use economic stimulus tools

After experiencing an average annual growth rate of nearly 10% in 30 years, any economy will certainly face some pain. In fact, economists often talk about various bottlenecks, but even if they launch the most wild imagination, who can foresee the traffic congestion that lasted for 60 miles and 11 days in Beijing? This also counts as one of a series of ultra-high economic data in China, but it is not what people want to see.

Is it possible for a major traffic jam to become a critical point or a symbolic event, and suddenly people realize that the current growth rate of China (which is already the second largest economy in the world) cannot be maintained indefinitely?

Some business leaders seem to have seen the arrival of this situation long ago. According to reports, just a few weeks ago, Rio Tinto’s chief executive, Abe, warned that China’s annual growth rate in the current 10-year period will slow to a minimum of 6%. He pointed out that nothing is eternal.

The Beijing-Tibet high-speed traffic jam was partly blamed on the increase in traffic in China (China is now the world’s largest car market, with 13.6 million cars sold last year), and it is also directly linked to the alarming economic expansion. . In recent years, freight traffic has risen sharply. From this perspective, the transport of coal trucks from Mongolia to the eastern power station is the culprit of a big traffic jam.

There are also many other problems that have erased some of the glory of China’s high-growth economies. These problems include not only increased inflation, rising wage costs, and an abrupt bubble in the asset market, but also an increase in environmental damage and increasingly harsh government supervision.

However, some market commentators immediately stood up and told everyone not to worry about the economic situation and weak economic data.

The most recent weaker data is industrial output. In July, China's industrial added value increased by 13.4% year-on-year, slower than the 13.7% increase in June.

Will there be new stimulus policies?

A recent report from Deutsche Bank stated that it expects economic data to weaken further in the next two or three months, but this is not enough. Beijing will once again relax its policy in the fourth quarter -- in essence, it will use stimulus tools again.

In such a situation, everything will be reconstructed as it was last time. This view seems quite common among brokers.

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