Compound fertilizer will continue its strong short-term market

Recently, domestic compound fertilizer prices have risen. Last week, the average price rose 50 yuan, the same, 45% 15:15:15 chlorine-based compound fertilizer mainstream factory price of 1950 to 2,000 yuan tons, the same, high-end prices in the 2150 yuan or more; The mainstream factory price of 45%* compound fertilizer is 2150-2200 yuan, and the high-end offer is 2450 yuan. Comprehensive analysis of the current status of the compound fertilizer market, the market will continue to be strong in the short term.

First, as the autumn sowing season approaches, the peak season for fertilizer demand is coming soon. Spring sowing fertilizer demand is mainly urea, and autumn sowing is the real golden season of compound fertilizer. Floods in many areas this year are severe, and the erosion of farmland has led to the loss of nutrients and the need for supplementary nutrients. The demand for chemical fertilizers has a resurgence of growth. In particular, the current rising domestic and international food prices will certainly stimulate the growth of fertilizer use. In the early stage of the market downturn, compound fertilizer companies stopped producing more, and there were few companies and social stocks. They could not fully meet the needs of the fall, and the demand for fertilizers was strong.

Second, the overall market for fertilizers is positive. After the adjustment of fertilizer export tariffs in July, the export of fertilizers increased substantially. In July, the exports of urea and diammonium phosphate reached 309,500 tons and 746,600 tons respectively, a substantial increase of 66.7% and 173.5% from the same period of last year. In some regions, the completion of production stoppages of chemical fertilizer plants to complete energy conservation and emission reduction tasks has promoted the overall upward trend of chemical fertilizers. At present, the urea factory price as a leading fertilizer product has generally been more than 1,700 yuan, driving other fertilizer varieties to different degrees upward.

Third, raw material prices are supported on the upside. Not only is the price of urea kept high, but monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizers are also on the upward track. Recently, monoammonium phosphate has risen all the way, and the rate of increase has been large. Currently, the domestic 55% powdered monoammonium mainstream factory price has reached 2,150 yuan, which has basically peaked. However, as the supply of monoammonium phosphate is still tight, most manufacturers' orders continue until the end of September. On the yellow price rapid upward, so the short-term decline in monoammonium phosphate is unlikely, is still expected to maintain a slight increase in the trend of stability. The previously quiet potassium fertilizer broke a wave of rising prices last week, with 50 yuan pulling up, especially the import market. The all-round rise in raw material prices is the strongest support for compound fertilizer prices.

Fourth, the price of phosphorus phosphate is high. At present, the wholesale price of 64% diammonium market is generally 3,000 yuan, and the wholesale price of high-end brand products in many areas can reach 3,100 yuan. Moreover, due to the large export volume in the previous period, combined with the fact that this year's phosphate storage has begun to start, compared with last year, the time has been advanced. The supply on the market is still relatively scarce. Under the high price of diammonium phosphate, the replacement effect of compound fertilizer gradually emerged.

Fifth, the international market prices rose. In early September, international compound fertilizer prices showed upward trend. In the Black Sea region, the FOB price for compound fertilizer at 48% was 315 to 330 US dollars, and the high-end price was increased by 10 US dollars compared to the end of August; the 45% content of the compound fertilizer for Germany was 285 to 295 euros, which is lower than in late August. The end price rose by 10 euros and the high end price rose by 15 euros. The rise in international compound fertilizer prices also has a certain role in driving domestic prices.

Due to the recent increase in fertilizer prices, users are watching and resisting sentiment, and terminal sales are not going strong. In addition, from the beginning of September 1 to October 15, ammonium phosphate export re-implemented 110% of the peak season tariffs, and this year, the reduction in the storage of phosphate fertilizer, will have a restrictive effect on the compound fertilizer market. However, under the support of raw material prices, domestic fertilizer prices in September can remain strong and continue to move closer to the high end.