Investment Highlights: At the beginning of 2005, the prices of various non-ferrous metals tend to be differentiated: since January, domestic zinc prices have risen by 4.20%; during the same period, the price of LME zinc rose by 3.49%; relative to the low point in early January, domestic tin prices rose. 6.33%; LME tin price rose 8.42%; 2004, the profit of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry increased significantly; and January-February 2005 data showed that non-ferrous metal ore profits rose by 200.8%, the industry's first quarter profit will be Continue to maintain rapid growth; ï¬ In 2005, the global zinc supply and demand relationship remains tense, and zinc prices are optimistic; domestic demand for lead, zinc, and tin remains stable, and spot prices will operate at relatively high levels. ï¬ Companies with room to increase their product prices are still worth watching. Listed companies with resources and capacity expansion are also worthy of attention. Operationally, it is recommended that after the stock index is adjusted to a low level, it will focus on maintaining growth in 2005 and the price-earnings ratio is lower than the industry average. Individual stocks. I. Industry Operation Situation in 2004 and January-February 2005 The output of domestic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin and nickel in 2004 was 2.055 million tons, 6.558 million tons, 7.024 million tons, and 1.754 million tons, respectively. , 2.537 million tons, 117,000 tons and 71,000 tons; the year-on-year increases were 18%, 20%, 14%, 8%, 10%, 14% and 21% respectively. The rapid growth of metal production is mainly driven by demand. The price trend of various metal products since the beginning of 2005: Copper: Since January, domestic and foreign copper prices have risen from the low point of the period, and the cumulative spot price of domestic copper has increased by 9.39%. At the same time, the cumulative spot price of LME copper has increased by 6.45%. As the relationship between supply and demand has improved, it is expected that the trend of copper prices in 2005 will be weaker than before. Aluminium: The recent trend of aluminum prices in China has been relatively stable, with a fairly limited range of fluctuations. The international aluminum price trend is also largely the same. Due to the impact of macro-control, there was a surplus of domestic primary aluminum in 2005, and the price gap between aluminum prices at home and abroad remained at a fairly high level. Lead: The recent domestic lead price is relatively stable, but international prices have fluctuate greatly. In 2005, the lack of sharp rise in lead prices, it is expected that the price trend will show a high level of stabilization or a slight increase. Zinc: Since January 2005, domestic zinc prices have risen by 4.20%, while LME zinc prices have risen by 3.49% over the same period. In fact, domestic and international zinc prices have been operating in the upward channel since August 2004. In 2005, the global zinc supply and demand relationship remained tight, and zinc prices were optimistic. Tin: Recently, domestic and international tin prices have basically rebounded at the bottom. Compared with the lows in early January, domestic tin prices rose by 6.33%; LME tin prices rose by 8.42%. It is expected that the average price of tin in 2005 will fall slightly compared to 2004, but it will maintain its high level of performance. Nickel: Since January, domestic nickel prices have fallen by 7.47%; during the same period, international nickel prices have fallen by 7.12%. Considering that global nickel supply and demand tend to balance in 2005, and current high nickel prices have already inhibited consumption, nickel prices are expected to be adjusted back. Gold and Silver: In general, the prices of gold and silver are driven by the trend of the US dollar. Based on the bearish view on the US dollar, it is estimated that the gold and silver price movements in 2005 will fluctuate at a high level. II. Summary of the 2004 Annual Report of Listed Companies and a Quarterly Outlook As of April 4, 25 of the 28 non-ferrous metals listed companies have disclosed their 2004 financial reports. In 2004, 25 companies achieved a total of 64.17 billion yuan in main business revenue, an increase of 60.13% year-on-year; realized main business profits of 10.535 billion yuan, an increase of 50.98%; and a net profit of 4.502 billion yuan, an increase of 70.54%. The average earnings per share of 25 companies were RMB 0.40, net assets per share was RMB 3.05, and net assets yield was 13.05%, which was far higher than the average listed company's annual report. Among the 25 companies, there were 11 main business incomes that increased more than the industry average, 12 main business profits increased more than average, and 10 had net profit growth that exceeded the average. All three indicators exceeded the industry average. There are 7 companies, namely Tin Industry, Yunnan Copper, Jinn Nickel, Jiangxi Copper, Hongda Stock, Copper Copper and Xiamen Tungsten. It is clear that the performance of the copper stocks has grown very well in 2004. Statistics show that the average gross profit rate of 25 companies dropped from 17.41% in the previous year to 16.42% in 2004, and the average net profit rate increased from 6.59% in the previous year to 7.02%, and profitability has improved. 2004 Nonferrous Metals Industry Listed Companies Main Financial Data Indicators Numerical Indicators Value Main Business Revenue Growth Rate (%) 60.13 Earnings per Share (yuan) 0.40 Growth Rate of Main Business Profit (%) 50.98 Net Assets per Share (Yuan) 3.05 Net Profit growth rate (%) 70.54 Return on net assets (%) 13.05 Gross sales margin (%) 16.42 Net sales margin (%) 7.02 Source: The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of Ding Ding recently showed that in January and February, the scale The above-mentioned industrial enterprises realized profits of 165.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4% over the same period of the previous year. Among the 39 major industrial categories, the profit of non-ferrous metal ore increased by 200.8% year-on-year. Obviously, the non-ferrous metals industry will continue to maintain high-speed growth in the first quarter, and the same is true of listed companies. Third, the outlook of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2005: the price trend of each species will tend to differentiation In 2005, the market environment of the non-ferrous metal industry is still good, it is estimated that China's aluminum, copper, lead, zinc and other 10 non-ferrous metal production will still increase by more than 10% . It is expected that the domestic refined copper spot price will be running at a high of 27,000-31,000 yuan/ton in 2005, and the industry profit will still increase. Under the monopoly of aluminum industry in China, it is expected that the domestic alumina spot price will run at a high of RMB 3,700-4,300/t in 2005, and the industry will still maintain high profits. It is expected that the spot price of domestic primary aluminum will run in the range of RMB 14,500-17,500/ton in 2005, and the industry will still face difficulties in costs and policies. It is expected that domestic demand for lead, zinc, and tin will remain stable in 2005, and spot prices will operate at relatively high levels, and zinc and tin are positive. Global non-ferrous metal supply gap change and spot price forecast in 2005 Price Unit: RMB/ton Average price in 2003 Average price in 2004 2004/2003 Supply gap in 2005 Supply gap in 2005 Average price forecast 2005/2004 Expected copper.55% 87.602 .00300007.13% Aluminum.06%72.3137.10172006.21% Lead.06%19.507.6093003.69% Zinc.47%26.0028.001250015.57% Tin.50%0.800.609300010.49% Nickel.96%2.101.001520008.57% Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, CRU, etc. The second quarter industry investment recommendations from the year-to-date price trend analysis of various non-ferrous metal products can be seen in the degree of differentiation between the products, which also affects the performance of related listed companies in 2005. Given the high dependence of listed company performance on metal prices, companies with room for product prices are still worth watching; listed companies with resources and capacity expansion also deserve attention. Operationally, investors are advised to focus on stocks whose 2005 performance has maintained growth and whose price-earnings ratio is below the industry average after the stock index has been adjusted to a low level. V. Key stocks recommend Zhongjin Lingnan (000060): Benefit from rising product prices and increased production capacity. At the beginning of 2005, the company's performance will enter the fast-growing runway. Due to the unique smelting technology of the company, the required raw materials are mostly lead-zinc mixed ore, and its import cost is much lower than the cost of a single concentrate purchase required by other peers; its comprehensive smelting cost is leading in China. The company’s own mining mining process is leading domestically and its equipment is high. Its mining recovery rate is as high as 98%, which is higher than the international average of 90-92%, which is much higher than the 50-70% of domestic counterparts. The company's own mine reserves of 400-500 million tons of metal, the average grade of nearly 14%, a relatively rich content of by-products to effectively enhance the mine value. Prospective prospecting is expected to occur. The planned gradual implementation of mine and smelting capacity expansion and technological process transformation will continue to lay a solid foundation for the company's sustainable and rapid development in the future. In 2005, due to the support of supply and demand, zinc is expected to become a better performing metal species in the year, and the upward trend will continue. The refinancing will effectively relieve the financial pressure of the company and improve the financial structure of the company. Potential investment projects will ensure the sustainable development of the company in the future. It is expected that the company's 2005 earnings per share will be above 0.50 yuan, and the current valuation is low. Tin Industry (000960): In 2004, the total output of non-ferrous metals was 68,296 tons, and 107.69% of the annual plan was completed, an increase of 9.16% year-on-year. In 2004, the main business income was 3.041 billion yuan, an increase of 87.64% year-on-year; the net profit was 335 million yuan. The year-on-year increase of 632.47%. In 2005, the company plans to produce a total of 66,770 tons of non-ferrous metals, including 7,500 tons of tin chemical products and 1,030 tons of tin products, which will become the company's new profit growth point. It is estimated that the company's 2005 earnings per share is 0.867 yuan, and the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is less than 10 times. The stock has investment value. HTC (600331): The Yunnan Lanping lead-zinc mine acquired by the company is a major lead-zinc mine in Asia. The reserves of lead, zinc and other metals exceed 14 million tons, and they are characterized by high grades and low mining costs. The company also acquired Zinc Concentrate in Ganluo, Sichuan, and it is expected to be put into production by the second quarter of 2005. The company established a new 100,000 smelting base in Lanping, Yunnan, and is expected to start production in October 2005. By then, the company's zinc smelting capacity will expand by 50%. It is expected that the domestic supply gap for zinc will be approximately 100,000 tons in 2005. The shortage of zinc concentrates and zinc is directly reflected in the rise of international and domestic zinc prices. In 2005, the company's self-sufficient ratio of raw materials for zinc smelting was 45%, gross profit margin will be increased to 45%, output will also increase, and profitability will increase significantly. The profitability of the company's chemical business remained stable. It is estimated that the net profit in 2005 will reach 191 million yuan and the earnings per share will be 0.458 yuan.
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