Later steel price trend analysis and forecast

The current steel market seems to be in a whole rest period, but there is no incremental increase in downstream purchases, so businesses are still faced with an embarrassing situation that is difficult to ship. Many people may say that steel traders are now most concerned about demand issues. Yes, it is true that demand is indeed very important. However, at present, during the two-day period, it is approaching the end of the month, plus the current banks, ** The situation is more severe. The author reminds everyone that new pressure must be taken at the end of the month.

Remember the money shortage in June, which made it difficult for the entire market to go through a period of panic. The impact of the steel market as the most sensitive and fragile sector on funds is naturally self-evident. Fortunately, the state helped clear the dispute, the financial market's money shortage storm gradually went away, and the steel market slowly recovered its vitality. However, with the arrival of the twins, a new round of funding tensions have begun to come. Do you know what kind of pressure the steel industry will face this time?

The fragile capital chain has always been a criticism of the steel industry. Especially after last year’s steel boss “ransport incident” and this year’s “money shortage incident”, every time a financial alarm comes to mind, it will provoke people's fragile nerves. It is understood that in recent days, the central bank has conducted an 8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation in the open market, a reduction of 2 billion yuan over the same period last week, and the successful bid rate was 3.90%. This week, open market central bank bills will expire at 4 billion yuan and reverse repurchase will expire at 20 billion yuan, taking into account that the routine open market operations routinely performed on Thursday will be suspended due to the Mid-Autumn Festival. If there is no other operation, the open market will achieve 80 this week. Billion net withdrawal. This "landmass" operation was unexpected and the central bank's intention to maintain stability was obvious. It only hoped that the capital would not be affected.

However, things may not have been so simple. The suspension of loans has once again returned to the sight of the market, because the credit lines that have been gradually tightened until the end of the year have suddenly stopped the brakes since late September. The fact that "the money is tight at the end of the banking season" has caused businesses to start to get nervous. It is understood that, at present, mortgage applications have begun to face suspension of loans, and in fact, encountered bank suspension loans, far more than the mortgage. According to informed sources, although the loan approval business is proceeding normally, the reality is that this year the number of credit lines in the head office is very strict, resulting in a significantly smaller amount of new loans than loan demand. Therefore, the situation such as queuing, etc., is becoming increasingly apparent.

If banks begin to cash-in-season at the end of the quarter, as is customary, loans for the steel industry will also be more difficult. The tight market funds have affected not only steel traders but also downstream industrial chains. When the housing mortgage meets resistance, the real estate industry will also have a certain impact. The most important thing is investment. Some people may say that this is only an extraordinary period. It will be better after this period, but the end of the month and the end of the season are also a sensitive period for the steel industry. During this period, the steel traders and steel mills faced with the payment and return. The pressure will be concentrated on strikes. If the bank is hit by tight money, it will be miserable.

Jin Jiuyin 10 is a season in which steel traders are full of hope. However, judging from the current situation, it seems that apart from being cautious and nervous, there is basically no other emotion. What is even more disturbing is that domestic problems have not yet been solved. The 72 QE changes in foreign countries have caused the prices of commodities to fluctuate. This is really a wave of waves. The instability of the steel trade has caused steel traders to worry about whether or not iron ore prices will fluctuate sharply. The foreign situation will allow iron ore prices to fluctuate at any time, while domestic funds The pressure has made steel traders not dare to operate rashly. This is really a good thing.

As for how the late steel price trend, the author believes that it has to survive this period of time to know, but in the financial pressure and perturbation of perturbation, the current estimated steel prices can only be so small fluctuations to meet the market.