Offshore renminbi soared in the afternoon and rose above the 6.81 mark

On January 5th, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose at a rapid rate of more than 500 points after 13 o'clock in Beijing today. It quickly broke through 6.83 from 6.87, and broke through the 6.81 mark after a short period of consolidation.
On the shore, the RMB against the US dollar also broke the 6.9 mark, and the onshore-offshore price was nearly 800 points.
The morning foreign exchange trading center issued an announcement that the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate was 6.9307, a sharp increase of 219 basis points over the previous trading day, the largest increase in a month. Overnight offshore RMB rose by more than 900 basis points against the US dollar. The surge in offshore RMB in the past two days has caused the market to speculate whether the central bank will intervene in the offshore market. However, Zhou Hao, the chief Chinese economist at Commerzbank, believes that there is no obvious trace of intervention on the disk. To a large extent, the skyrocketing offshore renminbi reflects the subtle relationship between “cost” and “expectation”.
Zhou Hao pointed out that the sudden strength of the offshore renminbi reflects a choice of the market, and such sudden strength has also led to the market's trading disk reversal, behind which is a more interesting reason - the short-term renminbi in the market More, once the market reverses, the short-covering has caused a lot of trampling.
Reuters quoted market traders as saying that the offshore renminbi surge was due to multi-factor accumulation, including the volatility of renminbi's liquidity, and the introduction of multiple policies by China's regulatory authorities at the beginning and end of the year had a certain impact on bears. The increase in strength has received initial results.

Short-term depreciation is expected to ease
Regarding the trend of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2017, Hu Yuexiao, chief analyst of the Shanghai Securities Research Institute, believes that it may not continue the sharp depreciation trend in 2016. On the one hand, after the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen more than a year since the end of 2015, it has formed an important phase balance on the 6.95 line. On the other hand, the key factor determining the medium and long-term performance of the RMB exchange rate is still the economic fundamentals.
For the time being, the Chinese economy still has three reasons for supporting the renminbi exchange rate to remain stable: First, although China's GDP growth has slowed since 2016, this performance is still stable in the world's major economies. In the first echelon; second, the supply-side reform, the "three to one, one reduction, one subsidy" and other reform policies, so that the Chinese economy opens up a huge space for transformation and upgrading; Third, in the current global economic recovery is still not stable In terms of industrial policies and macroeconomic regulation, China has obvious decision-making and institutional advantages compared to most other economies.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that Trump’s official launch at the end of January may lead to a renewed surge in the dollar, and the yuan is still facing external pressure. As China's Spring Festival approaches, the increased demand for seasonal foreign exchange purchases may also bring phased pressure on the RMB exchange rate. However, the regulatory authorities continue to play a role in macro-prudential supervision of foreign exchange and capital flows, and have the ability to keep the foreign exchange market basically stable.

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