Due to the long-term uncertainty of the Italian on-grid tariff subsidy policy in the first half of the year, coupled with the fierce price war in the downstream, the global PV industry has been severely tested in the past few months, and the market outlook has been ambiguous. However, our reporter recently learned from a number of PV companies that the parties are still confident about the industry's prospects. They believe that the unfavorable situation in the first half of the year will be reversed in the second half of the year, and PV parity online is also expected to be realized ahead of schedule. Prices have fallen to a few years later. “Since the second quarter, our component factories and battery factories have been producing at full capacity.†Xiao Xiaotong, chairman of the solar module manufacturer Ats Sunshine Power, told this reporter that “not only full-load production Last week, we even mobilized the staff of the headquarters office to support the overtime at the grassroots level. He believes that at least the first-tier companies such as Artes have not seen signs of bad prospects. Tang Yiming, executive director and chief financial officer of GCL-Poly, another leading polysilicon manufacturer, said that with the current annual production capacity of the company, orders have been placed in the next 8 to 9 years, so further expansion of production capacity is needed to meet customer demand. He predicts that by the end of this year, the company's annual production capacity of silicon wafers will reach 6.5 GW. However, the large increase in orders is difficult to cover the decline in prices. It is reported that GCL-Poly's average selling price of wafers in the first quarter of this year was 0.76 US dollars per watt, down by 0.06 US dollars from the fourth quarter of last year. Earlier reports said that global PV module and battery prices have fallen by 18%-20% in three months, while polysilicon prices have fallen by 10% in a single week. "Price decline is not a problem, as long as the cost declines faster than the price decline." Tang Yiming said that the company's polysilicon cost last year was 22.5 US dollars per kilogram, and hopes to drop to 20 US dollars per kilogram by the end of this year. The cost of silicon wafers is expected to be from the end of last year. The tile fell to $0.20 from $0.27. "At least in the next 5 or 6 years, the order is not a problem." Another senior person from GCL-Poly confirmed the adequacy of polysilicon orders in an interview with this reporter yesterday. He pointed out that price cuts are normal and that the global PV industry must go through in order to achieve a cheap price. "Moreover, in the past few years, the gross profit margins of all ends of the PV industry chain have been high, and there is room for decline. There is a problem without lowering prices. He revealed that the price of the “long association†signed by GCL-Poly and its customers has been lowered year by year. “Any market volatility will drive the integration of the photovoltaic industry, and integration will help improve the supply and demand structure of the industry, which will help the upstream and downstream to develop more rationally. Therefore, even if the price of PV modules is reduced, it will find a more balanced node in the future.†Senior PV industry Gao Zhoumiao, an interviewer, said in an interview with this reporter. In his view, the upstream and downstream profit distribution of the short-term PV industry chain may be uneven, but in the long run, it will definitely achieve a balance. All parties are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year. "If you look at the quarterly reports of major PV listed companies, you can see that most companies are still very optimistic about the second half of the year." Gao Zhoumiao said that PV demand has not dropped significantly, although the first half of the year There are surpluses, but big companies such as Trina, Jingao and Yingli still maintain their forecasts for the whole year. He believes that the reduction of PV subsidies in Italy and Other countries is beneficial to domestic enterprises, because domestic enterprises have lower costs, higher cost performance, and more able to withstand market changes after price cuts. Tang Yiming estimates that the overall situation of the PV market will improve in June. "In fact, the photovoltaic industry will experience such a stage in the first half of each year." The above-mentioned GCL-Poly executives told this reporter that Germany proposed to cut subsidies in the first half of last year. The situation at that time was more serious than it is now. After all, the German market is bigger than the Italian market. many. But in the second half of the year, it has ushered in rapid growth. He predicted that the global PV market will still grow by 30%-40% compared with last year. Liu Qing, an analyst at iSuppli, pointed out that the PV market prospects can still be optimistic, especially after the outbreak of the Japanese nuclear crisis. According to a study by the agency, this year's PV demand will remain strong and will benefit the entire industry. It is expected that the industry's total operating profit margin will increase quarter by quarter, reaching 16% in the second quarter and rising to 17% in the third quarter. Reached 19%. Earlier, after the outbreak of the Japanese nuclear crisis, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said that he would reconsider Japan’s energy policy. Many Japanese people wrote to the Solar Energy Association of the country, saying, "I hope that photovoltaics can replace nuclear power and become Japan's main energy supply method in the future." A survey also shows that 72% of Japanese people hope to reduce electricity in 30 years. Nuclear power components are urgently required to increase the penetration rate of new energy sources. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has also developed a “sunshine plan†to increase solar power generation to 15 times by 2030. In this regard, Xiao Xiaoyu pointed out that the Japanese nuclear power crisis reminds us that the cost of traditional energy needs to be re-examined. With the slowdown in the development of nuclear power in various countries, PV will also show greater competitiveness. "After the nuclear crisis in Japan, all countries should re-examine the energy structure balance and safety issues in the new environment. Although in the short term, this event will not have much impact on the photovoltaic industry, but I believe that photovoltaic power generation will be in the future. The energy structure is taking up a larger proportion," said Xiao Xiaoyu. Zhou Fengqi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told this reporter that if the development of nuclear power slows down, the proportion of other new energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power and hydropower will definitely rise. This is because countries will not increase the proportion of renewable energy. change. Among all kinds of new energy sources, photovoltaics are expected to benefit the most, because of their high safety and abundant resources. Insiders pointed out that due to the urgent need to release photovoltaic capacity, the future price reduction of polysilicon is the trend of the times, and is more optimistic about the prospects of polysilicon cutting accessories. As soon as the production capacity of polysilicon is released, the demand for consumables for wafer cutting will increase greatly. The company that produces excipients is a better investment target, involving the listed company Stellar Technology (002132, stock bar), Xindaxincai (300080, stock bar) , Oak shares (300082, shares it). Affordable Internet access is expected to be realized in advance. It is reported recently that a large domestic PV company has been able to achieve the on-grid tariff of 1 yuan / kWh, which means that the 1 yuan power generation target proposed by the photovoltaic industry two years ago is in part. The company has already realized in advance, so that the time for the future PV to achieve parity online may also be advanced. For a long time, the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of the photovoltaic industry is that the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation is much higher than that of conventional power, and the cost of 1 yuan/kWh is considered to be the threshold for PV companies to open up the domestic market. Two years ago, 13 PV companies, including Suntech Power and LDK, released the Luoyang Declaration, claiming to achieve the goal of 1 yuan per kWh of photovoltaic power generation in 2012. "This year, many companies should be able to achieve the cost of power generation below 1 yuan / kWh." The above-mentioned GCL-Poly executives told this reporter that in areas with sufficient sunshine such as Dunhuang, 1 yuan of power generation can certainly be achieved. At the recent relocation ceremony of the Oerlikon Solar Shanghai office, the thin-film solar equipment giant also announced that the company's production cost per watt of thin-film batteries has dropped below 0.5 euros, and the cost of power generation is as low as 0.87 yuan / kWh. This has made parity online possible within a certain range. "Only on the premise of realizing affordable Internet access, solar cells can take off in China," said Peter Tinner, director of sales and marketing for solar energy at Oerlikon. However, for the major PV companies to generally achieve 1 yuan of power generation, Xiao Xiaoying said that there is no unified standard, but depends on the lighting resources, system costs and financing costs of the specific PV project location. “We have done a lot of projects overseas, and each project will provide investors with an investment return analysis, which involves cost and electricity prices. But whether to achieve the cost of 1 yuan of power generation depends on the specific case.†Xiao Xiaoyu said.
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