Qinhuangdao port coal stocks approach historical high prices or continue to decline

Affected by demand, weather, market mentality and holiday factors, Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal inventories have recently approached historic highs. At the same time, some market participants pointed out that the continuous price cuts in Qinhuangdao Port since mid-November last year have not yet ended.

According to the statistical data of the "steel Union Coal Information Coal Network," as of February 3, Qinhuangdao Port coal total inventory of 7.86 million tons, an increase of 325,000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 4.3%.

Chen Yanyan, analyst of “Sinosteel Information Coal” pointed out that the recent Qinhuangdao Port coal inventories are in a process of continuous increase, and they are close to the historic high of 8.195 million tons that was created in early August last year.

It is understood that Qinhuangdao Port is China's largest energy export port, and its normal coal inventory is generally maintained at around 6.5 million tons. In the face of a high inventory of more than 8 million tons, the port of Qinhuangdao does not rule out the possibility of “draining Hong Kong”.

Chen Yanyan pointed out that the continuous increase in coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port is not unrelated to the decline in demand for thermal coal in the context of the current macroeconomic downturn, the Spring Festival holiday factors, weather factors, and business mentality. According to reports, during the Spring Festival holidays, traders left the city and most industrial enterprises stopped working. The trading volume of thermal coal declined, daily power consumption of power plants decreased, and coal deposits increased.

According to reports, as of January 24 (Large-Year-October 2nd), the number of coal deposits in the six major coastal power plants reached 13.58 million tons, and the number of days available for storing coal was as high as 40.2 days, while the total daily consumption was only 337,800 tons, which was higher than usual daily consumption. The amount has decreased by about half.

In addition, she said that the recent adverse weather in the Qinhuangdao waters had affected the ship operations at the Qinhuangdao port, indirectly affecting the amount of coal discharged. According to meteorological information, due to the influence of cold air, the recent continuous low temperature in the Qinhuangdao waters has further aggravated the freezing weather. At present, the ice area in the Qinhuangdao sea area is 15 nautical miles, and the maximum ice thickness in local sea areas has reached 15 cm.

It is worth mentioning that, while stocks are approaching historical highs, Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices have fallen for three consecutive months, and market participants have pointed out that the trend of falling prices is still not over.

According to the data of “Sinosteel Information Coal”, since the price of 865 yuan/ton had appeared in early November last year, the 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has been in a state of overcast. As of February 3, the price was displayed at 780 yuan/ton, which represented a drop of 85 yuan/ton in three consecutive months.

Some market participants pointed out that although the current market has a certain amount of trading, but only limited to the long association, "the normal opening of the market in various sectors to be after the first lunar January 15, and the current market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is expected that prices will continue to fall slightly next week may".