Real estate stocks polarization situation is obvious, some cities do not fall back

On August 3, the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would give better play to the role of investment in economic growth. It is suggested that in the future, due to the city's efforts to increase regulation and control, further destocking; encourage rent-and-sale, and share ownership with the government to promote residents to purchase houses. Encourage brand real estate development companies to acquire existing real estate projects.
According to the latest report of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, the inventory reduction in the first half of the year was obvious, maintaining the trend of year-on-year decline in inventory for 10 consecutive months. However, it is worth noting that while the inventory of most cities is lowered, the inventory size of 26 cities does not fall. Experts said that while continuing to “destock”, they should be alert to the risk of asset bubbles caused by high leverage.

Cooling real estate sales investment is now callback
Entering July, the short-term stimulating effect of “Diwang” is gradually fading, and with the off-season effect, Shenzhen, which had led the rise, has once again taken the lead in the first-tier cities. According to the transaction data of Shenzhen Customs Committee, the average transaction price of new houses in Shenzhen in July was 56,720 yuan / square meter, down 8.2% from the previous month, setting a record for the highest decline since 2012.
In fact, the callback has become the main theme of the real estate market in July. Changjiang Securities (10.300, 0.01, 0.10%) report shows that the growth rate of 75 city transactions continued to decline. In July 2016, the transaction area of ​​75 cities increased by 11.47% year-on-year, which was 7.58 percentage points lower than that in June. The decline rate was faster than that of the previous month.
In this regard, Changjiang Securities analyst Pu Dongjun said that the overall cooling trend of the property market continued to be verified, under the influence of the diminishing marginal effects of easing policies, the tightening of some urban policies, the rise in housing prices, and the rise in the base, the sales growth in the second half of the year. Will continue to cool down.
Real estate investment also slowed down simultaneously. A few days ago, the latest data released by the Statistics Bureau showed that from January to June 2016, the national real estate development investment was 466.31 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 6.1% year-on-year (the actual increase of 8.0% after deducting the price factor), and the growth rate dropped from January to May. 0.9 percentage points, of which June increased by 3.5% in a single month, down 3 percentage points from May. This is the second month since real estate investment has fallen in the second month since 2016. At the same time, the national housing boom index in June was 94.40, down 0.08 points from May, which was the first time in the year.
Pu Dongjun believes that with the accelerated release of early-stage demand this year and the rising base of the same period last year, real estate sales accelerated and the investment growth rate was significantly improved.
Therefore, Zhongda Real Estate Zhang Dawei believes that at present, the real estate market has shown signs of high downgrades, and this has once again boosted the real estate market in the “destocking” state. Therefore, from the perspective of economic development, it is still necessary to stabilize real estate investment to support economic growth, and this is the main reason for the NDRC’s call.
Indeed, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of private investment and manufacturing investment has continued to decline, the market's endogenous investment growth momentum is weak, and the downward pressure on investment cannot be ignored; the proportion of individual investment is larger, the province's decline is further widened, and investment fluctuation risk is increasing. .

Different levels of urban stocks
According to the latest report of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, as of the end of June 2016, the total inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities monitored by the Yiju Research Center think tank was 43.183 million square meters, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.7% from the same period last year. Compared with the scale of 45,425,000 square meters at the beginning of the year, the inventory reduction in the first half of the year was obvious, maintaining the trend of year-on-year decline in inventory for 10 consecutive months.
Among them, among the 70 cities monitored, 44 cities showed a year-on-year decline. Specifically, the inventory area of ​​Kunshan, Suzhou, Dachang and Nanjing decreased by 41.8%, 47.4%, 49.2% and 56.2%, respectively, and the Hefei inventory area was up by 66.5%.
In this context, the destocking cycle has been significantly reduced. Tangshan, Handan, Zhangzhou, Maoming and Wuxi had inventory periods of 59, 40, 18, 24 and 18 months at the beginning of the year, and by the end of the first half of the year, the inventory cycle was adjusted to 30, 28, 9, 15 and 9 respectively. Months were reduced by 30, 12, 9, 9 and 9 months respectively. At the same time, Suzhou stocks only exist for 5 months. The inventory cycles of Yanjiao and Huizhou are 4 months and 3 months respectively, while the inventory digestive cycle between Nanjing and Hefei is only about 2 months.
However, it is worth noting that while the inventory of most cities is lowered, the inventory size of 26 cities does not fall. Specifically, Jinan real estate inventory scale rose by 34.6% year-on-year, Dalian rose by 35.1% year-on-year, Jingmen rose by 35.6% year-on-year, while Sanya and Sanya rose by 37.0% and 37.5% respectively. Haikou and Huainan rose by 40.0% and 48.9% respectively. It rose by 56.2% year-on-year, Jining rose by 67.0% year-on-year, and Maoming's inventory rose by 69.2% year-on-year.
From the point of view of decontamination, in the Hefei, Nanjing and other places facing the "inventory shortage", the deconstruction cycle of eight cities including Shenyang and Jinjiang is still more than 20 months. Among them, Dandong and Tangshan have a depletion cycle of up to 30 months. .
Yan Yuejin, an analyst at Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, said that after a long period of de-transformation, real estate stocks have been released to varying degrees. However, for third- and fourth-tier cities with high inventory pressure, active destocking is still the main task of the future.
Guo Yi, director of the marketing department of Yahao, said that although the real estate control policy has been stimulated by relaxation, and the volume of money is “diffuse flooding”, in the third- and fourth-tier cities where some economic foundations are weak and the industry is not favorable, real estate regulation The stimulus of the policy can only produce short-term positive effects on the regional property market. In the long run, in the context of lack of employment opportunities and insufficient population adsorption, the inventory pressure is difficult to be fundamentally reversed, and the property market will continue to improve. Formed great resistance.

Be wary of going to stocks and guard against "bubbles"
Some insiders said that the downward pressure on investment is constantly invading the local economy and fiscal revenue. Under the background that no substitute industry has yet to be found, local finance will continue to rely on real estate, which also determines that the direction of real estate investment cannot be changed. . In addition, for the market with uneven heat and cold, the city will become the mainstream in the second half of the year. For cities with large stocks, it is still king to do everything possible to go to stock.
It is precisely because of this that the National Development and Reform Commission has proposed that it will further promote the healthy development of real estate investment, and strengthen the regulation and control efforts due to urban policies. For high-inventory cities, encourage further increase in destocking efforts, and can promote residents to purchase houses by means of renting and selling, and sharing property rights with the government. At the same time, encourage brand real estate development companies to acquire existing real estate projects, digest inventory through brand injection and improve housing quality; improve education, medical, commercial and other ancillary services to enhance housing attractiveness.
In the cities with tight housing supply such as first- and second-tier housing, the National Development and Reform Commission believes that it is necessary to expand the supply of land by expanding new land supply and revitalizing existing land to prevent land prices from rising rapidly. According to market conditions, timely adjust the proportion of land supply for housing, office buildings and commercial business buildings, and rationally plan the area of ​​commercial facilities for residential construction.
In this regard, Bank of China International Securities analyst Yuan Hao said that last week's Central Political Bureau meeting first mentioned "inhibition of asset bubbles" caused market concern, although the current first- and second-tier cities and cities and cities are facing overheating difficulties, but including third- and fourth-tier cities The industry as a whole is still in the process of long-term destocking, while the political and economic situation at home and abroad is intensifying, and domestic monetary policy will not make radical adjustments.
However, it is worth noting that independent economist Qiao Ruiqing believes that under the current situation, the real estate bubble still exists, and it is impossible to ignore the overall upward trend of housing prices because of the declining trend of high inventories and housing prices in some cities. In the urgent task of promoting urbanization, adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure, and completing “destocking” and “cost reduction”, local governments cannot forget the danger of “asset bubbles”.
In this regard, Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview that the supply-side reform has made relatively obvious progress, but some localities and certain areas are still in the process of promoting supply-side reform. There is a problem. For example, the supply-side reform in the real estate sector should go to the housing bubble and reduce housing prices. However, in some places, housing prices have risen markedly. The local authorities have not enough understanding of this aspect and need to explore and adjust.

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