Smart lock market status analysis smart lock development prospects

With the development of the science and technology of the Internet of Things, smart locks are no longer simply providing simple basic functions such as fingerprints and password unlocking. Users can use a lock to make the family's lifestyle from cumbersome to minimal, and at the same time provide stronger protection. Family property and family safety. What is the status and prospects of the smart lock industry development? Xiao Bian this for everyone to analyze.

Smart lock market potential demand

The application market demand for smart locks is usually calculated based on the current inventory of real estate and the annual new inventory. From 1991 to the end of 2015, the cumulative number of completed urban goods and guaranteed housing in China was increased before the reform of the housing system. The stock, plus 70 million sets of incomplete property rights, scale of about 35.41 million to 37.781 million sets, minus the estimated removal of 20 million sets, at the end of 2015, the urban residential stock of about 32,880,000 to 35,411,100 sets.

Assume that each household has a home lock, plus an annual increase of about 7 million sets of commercial housing. According to this estimate, only a single urban residential, the market demand for smart lock is about 350 million; if the market development, indoor lock If it is replaced with a smart lock, assuming that each household needs two indoor locks, the potential demand for smart locks in town houses is: 350 million + (3.5 billion × 2) = 1.05 billion.

According to the existing 3 million hotel rooms, each room is equipped with a smart lock, which also requires 3 million.

In the commercial sector, under the unique mixed-ownership economic system in China, there are various large, medium and small-sized enterprises, which are further subdivided into state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, private enterprises, and self-employed individuals. As of 2015, the number of legal entities in China More than 12 million. According to statistics released by Wang Jianxiang, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's bidding center and deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in July 2015, the number of SMEs in China exceeded 70 million. In such a large body, suppose a company needs a smart lock and the total demand reaches 70 million. In fact, the company's departmental setup and office space are relatively complex and individualized, and the number of locks needed is several or even several dozen times that of 70 million.

Based on the above, China only has three items of urban residents' residences, accommodation rooms and corporate offices, and the demand for smart locks is no less than 1.1 billion. According to the current mainstream price of smart locks, which is 1,000 yuan per unit, the market potential of smart locks is not less than 1,100 billion yuan.

According to statistics, there are approximately 460 million households in China, while about 20% of the population in concentrated cities and towns are rent-based, and the proportion of rents in first-tier cities is as high as 40%. This is calculated from the perspective of urban development and urban resources. In the future, the estimated percentage of rental will exceed 50%. This particular situation will accelerate the demand for smart locks in existing rental housing and public rental housing and apartments.

Smart lock market status

Based on the demand for real estate assets, the potential market capacity of smart locks in the three major areas of urban residential, hotel accommodation, and corporate office is estimated to be as large as 1.1 trillion, which can be very large; taking the output value of the current security industry as an example. Including semiconductor supply, product manufacturing (including physical security and electronic security), agency, system integration, and engineering construction, the market size in 2016 was less than 490 billion yuan (source: a&s). However, the price of a smart lock in 2017 alone exceeds the size of the total security market by more than twice the size of the total security market, which is not surprising; if the average price in 2016 is 1,500 yuan/bar, and 2015 is 2,500 yuan/bar. The selling price will double the market size.

However, the smart lock with potential market size of trillions of dollars is still superficial. As of 2016, there are more than one thousand smart lock companies. Since the boom began, it has ushered in a fierce battle. The following analysis from three aspects.

1. Market: It is difficult to cut into the market pain points

After communicating with a number of practitioners, it is generally believed that the current penetration rate of smart locks in Japan and South Korea is >50%, while the domestic penetration rate is still less than 1%; the market has great potential. In addition, international data cited by some smart lock company propaganda pages show that 97% of households in China have the need to change smart locks. If this is the case, the smart lock market will detonate in the past two years and become the hottest single product area in China.

In fact, a&s after statistical analysis believes that domestic smart locks indeed have a very low penetration rate (<1%) and have great market potential, but they have not yet reached the stage of outbreak. Currently, the promotion of smart locks is driven by several concepts such as smart home, smart pension, health care, and hotel/apartment, and corresponding functions are designed for concepts, such as remote door opening, biometrics, and keyless doors, but in fact, These functions are basic functions that smart locks should have, and they cannot form effective selling points. In the event that it cannot constitute a just-needed situation, the smart lock is mainly developed in both directions of the hotel and home. The former is taking the shared economy route - "The dog-opened hotel is locked by the wolf and let the pigs use it." The hotel manager only The need for very low or even no cost can be used to install smart locks for the rooms under the jurisdiction, such as where to go; the latter is mainly accepted by the younger generation to receive new things quickly.

In addition, the functions of many smart locks have been reduced compared to the publicity, such as being unable to connect to the Internet, users are spending thousands of dollars to buy a “biometric mechanical lock” that can be opened using only fingerprints. Also often worry about the battery life of the lock; the convenience of the smart lock is greatly reduced.

2. Shipment: low starting point, rapid development

Recently, we have seen such a number of data on many websites: In 2016, the domestic smart lock market exceeded 300 billion yuan, and annual shipments exceeded 200 million. This data can startle every practitioner - it's too far off the mark. Because this data shows that the shipment volume of smart locks is already equivalent to half of the current number of Chinese households. If this calculation is used for three years, Chinese households can use smart locks on tall ones, which is obviously very unrealistic.

In fact, the more reliable data is: China's shipment of smart locks was about 2.4 million in 2016, and the average number of shipments per company was about 2,000. However, with smarter applications, 2017 smart locks are expected to increase. Shipments will see large growth, with an estimated 6 million shipments.

It can be inferred that the output value of the smart lock sales terminal in 2016 is about 3 billion, and the total output value of the entire industrial chain is about 5 to 6 billion. In 2017, although shipments doubled, the added value of the products shrank. The sales end-product value was about 5 to 6 billion, and the overall output value was about 8 to 10 billion.

3. Price: Not yet growing, selling cabbage

The second rise of smart locks took about six years. The industry has not really formed a climate yet, but the product market has already started a price war. The most obvious is that the average price of products has declined year by year:

According to the analysis of the price trend of a&s from the birth of smart locks, it has been found that the price of smart locks has always shown a gradual downward trend year-on-year: the early selling price was 3,000 to 4,000 yuan/bar; and by the beginning of 2015, it still maintained a price of 2,500 yuan. However, in the second half of the year, the price dropped to 2,000 yuan/bar. By this year, the overall unit price was to exceed 1,000 yuan/barrel; it is expected that from 2018 onwards, the smart lock will become a popular machine within a thousand dollars. With the current production volume of smart locks, the cost price of a smart lock is about 500 yuan, and the company's gross profit margin will continue to be compressed as the selling price decreases.

Compared with the declining trend of the overall price, the smart lock market has not yet matured. However, the smart lock with price “close to the people” has already appeared on the market, and the price is between 150 and 400 yuan/bar, which is far below the mainstream. Brand 500 yuan / to the cost price, such ultra-low prices, people have to doubt is not "the boss went to run, the boss inadvertently operating", in the face of such spoilers, the smart lock competition variable is difficult to predict, perhaps smart lock The industry's peaceful price war will become bloody in advance, or rely on the capital market to implement the rolling market competition.

As the so-called “one-cents-and-one” goods, ultra-low-price competition enters the market prematurely, which is not conducive to the growth of emerging markets. The first is the low cost of hard-to-exchange high-quality parts and technologies; secondly, plagiarism is used, the heart of market research and development, and subsequent technology-driven slowdown; and finally user experience, the author believes that this is the most critical factor in the market When it really rises, if the spoilers simply follow the hot spots, then in general, the product quality will not be guaranteed. If the sales volume is large, a more common bad customer experience will occur, which will inevitably affect the further development of the smart lock.

Smart lock foreground

Smart lock has a very wide potential market, but it is still difficult to form a just-needed, leading to the emergence of smart locks, it seems to reach the technical bottleneck period, market bottleneck period, which is very detrimental to the development of smart lock industry. First of all, smart lock companies will start shuffling. There will be a group of smart lock companies that catch up with hot spots, weak technical capabilities, and weak market expansion. The smart lock enterprises in the security industry will be marginalized. It will be replaced by specialized companies in the field of smart homes; once again, application solutions and business model innovation will be an important means to promote the development of smart locks.

At present, many users have the desire to purchase smart locks, but they do not know what brand of smart locks they should purchase. Because, no smart brand industry dares to say that their market share accounts for more than 10%, so the smart lock industry does not have a strong brand. Therefore, the creation of a smart lock brand will be one of the key points in winning the future market.

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