8th Steel Market Forecast: Steel Prices Continue to Weak

Due to the unsatisfactory demand for construction steel and plate, inventory has increased to varying degrees and the prices have fallen sharply; while the inventory of hot rolled coil coils has remained declining, cold rolled inventory has changed little, and the overall price decline has been relatively small. . After the National Day, the supply and demand relationship in the domestic steel market is unlikely to materially improve. The market arrival during the National Day will be significantly greater than the volume of shipments. Steel stocks will increase significantly throughout the country, and market resource pressures will continue to increase. Market prices may still be Continue to decline.

The domestic construction steel market prices have continued to decline. Near the end of the month and the end of the quarter, businesses have shown that the funding situation has been tense since late September. Some businesses that are eager to pay back have shipped at low prices, driving down the overall market price. The market performance in North China, Central China, and Southwest China is relatively poor, and the price decline is relatively large; while the market performance in East China, Northeast, and Southwest China is basically stable. The plate market is still showing mixed performance. The plate market was the worst. Affected by the price cuts of various plate manufacturers in Handan and Wu'an, prices in the entire North China region continued to decline. The market for hot-rolled coils has been strong for some time. Inventories in the two leading markets in Shanghai and Tianjin have continued to decline, and shipments from steel mills have been low, making the price of hot-rolled coils the highest among all the recent surfacing products. The cold-rolled coil market has recently performed steadily. After the end of the centralized bidding period for steel mills, the market price of cold-rolled coils has not changed much. Only a small number of regional market prices have followed a slight decline.

Market monitoring showed that as of September 27, the comprehensive steel price index was 139.5 points, which was 1.8 points lower than last week; the long steel price index for steel was 155.6 points, which was 2.4 points lower than last week; the price index for steel sheet was 120.1 points, It fell 1.1 points last week.

In respect of the steel mills, on September 25, Hebei Iron & Steel Group, the dominant steel producer in the north, issued the settlement price policy in September. The settlement price of the three-tier anti-seismic large thread was 3,400 yuan, the third-level disk spiral was 3430 yuan, and the HPB300 high-line was 3,420 yuan. This settlement price is basically the current market price. After the settlement price was announced, the decline in construction prices in North China slightly slowed down, and the market turnover also increased. However, due to the recent trend of increasing construction steel inventories in North China, merchants have a strong desire to ship, and prices have not shown signs of recovery.

In addition, the price trend of rebar ** remained weak this week, which also caused greater pressure on the spot market. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Fed’s message of reducing QE has been repeated, and the international capital market is like riding a roller coaster. Affected by this, the rebar has basically maintained a downward trend. The price of electronic discs is closer to the spot, and the price drop is relatively large.

Inventory, according to statistics, as of September 27, the country's 29 key cities of construction steel social inventory of 6.7429 million tons, an increase of 42200 tons than last week, an increase of 0.63%, 9.98% higher than the same period last year. The decrease in the volume of hot-rolled coil stocks was slightly accelerated.

For the domestic steel market after the National Day holiday, analysts believe it is still difficult to have a substantial improvement. First, the supply will maintain a relatively high level, and the average daily output of crude steel will exceed 210 million tons for a long period of time, and it may continue to grow. Second, although the economy has improved, but the overall economic growth this year may not be too high. Under this background, it is unlikely that steel prices will be pulled up. In addition, the market arrival during the National Day will be significantly greater than the shipment volume, there will be a significant increase in steel stocks across the region, market pressure on resources will continue to increase, the market price may continue to decline.