Abstract The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their estimates for global crude oil demand growth this year in their latest March monthly report. Although US crude oil demand fell to a new low in 16 years in 2012, EIA expects US liquid in the next two years...
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their estimates for global crude oil demand growth this year in their latest March monthly report. Although US crude oil demand fell to a 16-year low in 2012, EIA expects a slight increase in US liquid fuel consumption over the next two years. In its March monthly report, EIA lowered its global crude oil daily demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels to 100,000 barrels in 2013, and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 by 10,000 barrels to 1.4 million barrels.
Although demand growth has decreased, the total demand is still growing. EIA expects that due to the strong growth of China's oil demand, global demand for oil will increase by 1.1% in 2013. China's daily demand for oil is expected to increase by 450,000 barrels, accounting for about half of the global new demand, an increase of 4.4%. In addition, EIA expects global oil demand in 2014 to increase by 1.4 million barrels to 91.53 million barrels, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, China's oil demand in 2014 will increase by 510,000 barrels to 11.19 million barrels, an increase of 4.8%.
The EIA cut the forecast for the increase in oil production per day in non-Oil (People's Exporting Countries) (OPEC) countries by 10,000 barrels to 1.17 million barrels, and raised the estimated increase in non-OPEC oil production in 2014 by 10,000 barrels to 1.44 million barrels.
The IEA also said that it will cut its global oil demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 90.6 million barrels per day in 2013, and cut the global oil demand growth forecast for 2013 by 20,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day.
Due to severe production cuts in Saudi Arabia, the IEA also pointed out that OPEC's crude oil supply increased by 150,000 barrels per day to 30.49 million barrels per day in February this year, mainly because Iraq's crude oil output in February increased by 170,000 barrels per day to 3.14 million barrels per day. At the same time, due to the increase in US crude oil output, the supply of non-OPEC crude oil in 2013 was raised by 60,000 barrels per day to 54.5 million barrels per day.
As for crude oil prices, although the current price of Brent crude oil is maintained at 110 US dollars / barrel, EIA expects the average spot price of Brent crude oil to be 80 US dollars / barrel in 2013, 101 US dollars / barrel in 2014, the US crude oil in 2013 The average spot price is expected to be $91.92 per barrel, which is lower than the forecast level of $92.81 per barrel in its February report.
In addition, due to increased capacity from the Gulf of Mexico to the refinery's pipeline, the EIA expects the Brent-WTI crude oil price gap to shrink. In 2013, the average barrel price difference is expected to be $16 to 2014 Brent-WTI barrel. The average spread will be at $9.
US liquid fuel demand fell from 2008 million barrels per day in 2005 to 18.6 million barrels per day in 2012. In 2012, US crude oil demand fell by 2.08% from 2011, and total demand fell to its lowest level since 1996. However, EIA expects that US liquid fuel consumption will increase slightly in the next two years. The average daily consumption in 2014 will reach 18.7 million barrels of oil equivalent; while domestic US crude oil production will reach 7.5 million barrels per day in October this year, exceeding crude oil imports. The amount of 300,000 barrels per day has enabled the United States to achieve production more than net imports for the first time since 1996.
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