In the field of CNC machine tools, orders have increased sharply in the past three months, and the supply is in short supply, and the company is surprised and happy.
Among the pre-increased companies in the quarterly report, the mechanical sector has the most companies and the performance elasticity is the largest.
Why is there so many surprising orders in the field of CNC? Can machinery and sub-sectors become a strong sector to lead the market?
The machine tool will not decrease in the next three months.
Taking the machine tool as an example, Gao Shanwen said in an interview with reporters, "We asked the company, the company is also surprised and happy. I don't know if there is such a thing after the Spring Festival, and I doubt the continuity. Then when you ask the company's order, Come, they get it all the way, cars, military, may also include aerospace, to a certain extent, real estate. But these industries did not grow so much last year, how can it have such a big impact on the machine? There must be other forces at work."
This power is an important force in determining the future trend of the mechanical board.
Gao Shanwen interprets this power from three aspects: private investment is exploding, corporate connotation growth and the use of machines to replace employees to reduce labor costs. So in the manufacturing sector, private investment will provide a cushion for economic policy tightening, and this is a spontaneous growth. This is a synergistic effect.
Gao Shanwen believes that "this momentum will decline in the second half of the year, but it will still be on a higher platform. If we look at the span of two or three months, we can indeed see relatively positive factors."
In recent days, last year's annual report and the first quarter financial report frequently appeared. It is not difficult to find out after the inventory, the performance of the mechanical sector is the most flexible, and the company has the most pre-increased 100% or more.
In 2010, the industry boom exceeded last year, the average PE22.7 in the machinery sector and the leading company PE were less than 20 times. The excellent performance expectation and lower valuation made the mechanical sector a very good investment opportunity.
From the perspective of pre-increasing factors, we can focus on three major sub-sectors focusing on mechanical boards from three aspects: comprehensive competitiveness, export share, and external factors (reorganization, other good, etc.).
Demand for external demand
Lu Juan, an analyst at Guotai Junan, said: “The domestic demand for the construction machinery industry consists of three aspects: real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing. The first two are dominant, especially infrastructure construction. The construction period is three to five years. continuous."
It is estimated that the central government's investment in affordable housing, railways and highways and airports will reach 1.6 trillion, and incremental investment will increase the demand for machinery.
Industry demand picked up, sales increased sharply, the company's profitability improved; the external market gradually strengthened, and export data recovered; the market held upward judgments on the construction machinery industry and had higher expectations. Under the influence of multiple factors, the mechanical sector's stock price was “market forecastâ€. Under the support of "good", there is a certain upside. Li Yahui, a researcher at CITIC Construction Investment, believes that “the 4 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment of the central government has a great impact on the machinery industry, with construction machinery benefiting the most.â€
Regarding whether there is still performance maintenance factor in the construction machinery industry, Lu Juan said, “In November 2008, the plan was issued. The peak period of equipment procurement is from the second half of last year to the present. After the field research of Guotai Junan, it can be seen that compared with 2009. The number of starts, more projects started in 2010."
At the same time, Guo Ai Securities analyst Yu Aibin believes that the construction machinery industry gradually out of the off-season as sales, the market demand quickly out of the stable situation in January and February, broke out in March.
For the machine tool industry, GF Securities analyst Qiu Shiliang told reporters, "As the upstream industry of the construction machinery industry, for the recovery of the machine tool industry, the seasonal factors are not obvious."
Perspective differentiation, mining value
After the mechanical sector's growth rate was low in 2009, it clearly outperformed the broader market, highlighting the characteristics of the mechanical sector's active trend in the rebound market. Among them, there are many stocks with outstanding performance: Xugong Technology's earnings per share at the end of 2008 and 2009 were 0.20 yuan and 2.01 yuan respectively, an increase of 100.5%. The industry pioneer Zhonglian Heavy Industry's net profit last year was sharply higher, and the earnings per share has reached 0.713. yuan.
At the same time, the performance of the mechanical sector is highly differentiated, and some enterprises are still in a low position, which is mainly caused by the difference in income from the main business. Jingshan Light Machine fell 33.2% year-on-year in 2009, and Anhui Heli decreased 16.6%.
Shantui's export revenue decreased by 44.83% year-on-year, bulldozer gross profit margin fell by 6.43 percentage points for the whole year, and earnings per share fell from 0.670 yuan to 0.560 yuan. Zhao Xinmin, director of the Statistics and Information Department of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out that the decline in exports, the decline in sales rate, the decrease in new orders, the increase in inventories, and the sharp decline in profits reflected by the statistics showed that the overall operating situation of the machinery industry was more than expected. The severity is much more serious.
However, the data of the First Entrepreneurship Research Institute shows that construction machinery, machine tools and mechanical basic parts are the fastest growing industries. The output value growth in January and February is close to or exceed 40%. The domestic machinery industry has a high degree of prosperity in the first quarter, income and net. The profits have increased substantially.
The 120-day moving average of Xugong Machinery, located in Xuzhou, the first major town in the construction machinery industry, has been leaping forward. All institutions are optimistic about the annual report published in the competition. They believe that this year's sector still contains investment opportunities.
However, the prospect of short-term stabilization in the near future is still unclear. Lu Juan believes that “there is currently a lack of opportunities for the sector. Investors should focus on the selection of individual stocks. For the mechanical sector, three aspects should be used to evaluate individual stocks. First, the fundamentals of the company are good, and the real estate. The degree of relevance is small; secondly, the company has capital operation projects; finally, it is not possible to select stocks with higher valuations. For the above reasons, you can pay attention to Xugong Technology and Anhui Heli."
As the upstream industry of construction machinery, the machine tool industry has a cyclical lag. Qiu Shiliang believes that "the 4 trillion stimulus plan and the subsidies for the countryside to the countryside will promote the expansion of the manufacturing industry, the downstream demand will warm up, the general machinery will sell well, and the machine tools will be later than the recovery of construction machinery, so there will be an upward trend in the future."
Among the pre-increased companies in the quarterly report, the mechanical sector has the most companies and the performance elasticity is the largest.
Why is there so many surprising orders in the field of CNC? Can machinery and sub-sectors become a strong sector to lead the market?
The machine tool will not decrease in the next three months.
Taking the machine tool as an example, Gao Shanwen said in an interview with reporters, "We asked the company, the company is also surprised and happy. I don't know if there is such a thing after the Spring Festival, and I doubt the continuity. Then when you ask the company's order, Come, they get it all the way, cars, military, may also include aerospace, to a certain extent, real estate. But these industries did not grow so much last year, how can it have such a big impact on the machine? There must be other forces at work."
This power is an important force in determining the future trend of the mechanical board.
Gao Shanwen interprets this power from three aspects: private investment is exploding, corporate connotation growth and the use of machines to replace employees to reduce labor costs. So in the manufacturing sector, private investment will provide a cushion for economic policy tightening, and this is a spontaneous growth. This is a synergistic effect.
Gao Shanwen believes that "this momentum will decline in the second half of the year, but it will still be on a higher platform. If we look at the span of two or three months, we can indeed see relatively positive factors."
In recent days, last year's annual report and the first quarter financial report frequently appeared. It is not difficult to find out after the inventory, the performance of the mechanical sector is the most flexible, and the company has the most pre-increased 100% or more.
In 2010, the industry boom exceeded last year, the average PE22.7 in the machinery sector and the leading company PE were less than 20 times. The excellent performance expectation and lower valuation made the mechanical sector a very good investment opportunity.
From the perspective of pre-increasing factors, we can focus on three major sub-sectors focusing on mechanical boards from three aspects: comprehensive competitiveness, export share, and external factors (reorganization, other good, etc.).
Demand for external demand
Lu Juan, an analyst at Guotai Junan, said: “The domestic demand for the construction machinery industry consists of three aspects: real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing. The first two are dominant, especially infrastructure construction. The construction period is three to five years. continuous."
It is estimated that the central government's investment in affordable housing, railways and highways and airports will reach 1.6 trillion, and incremental investment will increase the demand for machinery.
Industry demand picked up, sales increased sharply, the company's profitability improved; the external market gradually strengthened, and export data recovered; the market held upward judgments on the construction machinery industry and had higher expectations. Under the influence of multiple factors, the mechanical sector's stock price was “market forecastâ€. Under the support of "good", there is a certain upside. Li Yahui, a researcher at CITIC Construction Investment, believes that “the 4 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment of the central government has a great impact on the machinery industry, with construction machinery benefiting the most.â€
Regarding whether there is still performance maintenance factor in the construction machinery industry, Lu Juan said, “In November 2008, the plan was issued. The peak period of equipment procurement is from the second half of last year to the present. After the field research of Guotai Junan, it can be seen that compared with 2009. The number of starts, more projects started in 2010."
At the same time, Guo Ai Securities analyst Yu Aibin believes that the construction machinery industry gradually out of the off-season as sales, the market demand quickly out of the stable situation in January and February, broke out in March.
For the machine tool industry, GF Securities analyst Qiu Shiliang told reporters, "As the upstream industry of the construction machinery industry, for the recovery of the machine tool industry, the seasonal factors are not obvious."
Perspective differentiation, mining value
After the mechanical sector's growth rate was low in 2009, it clearly outperformed the broader market, highlighting the characteristics of the mechanical sector's active trend in the rebound market. Among them, there are many stocks with outstanding performance: Xugong Technology's earnings per share at the end of 2008 and 2009 were 0.20 yuan and 2.01 yuan respectively, an increase of 100.5%. The industry pioneer Zhonglian Heavy Industry's net profit last year was sharply higher, and the earnings per share has reached 0.713. yuan.
At the same time, the performance of the mechanical sector is highly differentiated, and some enterprises are still in a low position, which is mainly caused by the difference in income from the main business. Jingshan Light Machine fell 33.2% year-on-year in 2009, and Anhui Heli decreased 16.6%.
Shantui's export revenue decreased by 44.83% year-on-year, bulldozer gross profit margin fell by 6.43 percentage points for the whole year, and earnings per share fell from 0.670 yuan to 0.560 yuan. Zhao Xinmin, director of the Statistics and Information Department of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out that the decline in exports, the decline in sales rate, the decrease in new orders, the increase in inventories, and the sharp decline in profits reflected by the statistics showed that the overall operating situation of the machinery industry was more than expected. The severity is much more serious.
However, the data of the First Entrepreneurship Research Institute shows that construction machinery, machine tools and mechanical basic parts are the fastest growing industries. The output value growth in January and February is close to or exceed 40%. The domestic machinery industry has a high degree of prosperity in the first quarter, income and net. The profits have increased substantially.
The 120-day moving average of Xugong Machinery, located in Xuzhou, the first major town in the construction machinery industry, has been leaping forward. All institutions are optimistic about the annual report published in the competition. They believe that this year's sector still contains investment opportunities.
However, the prospect of short-term stabilization in the near future is still unclear. Lu Juan believes that “there is currently a lack of opportunities for the sector. Investors should focus on the selection of individual stocks. For the mechanical sector, three aspects should be used to evaluate individual stocks. First, the fundamentals of the company are good, and the real estate. The degree of relevance is small; secondly, the company has capital operation projects; finally, it is not possible to select stocks with higher valuations. For the above reasons, you can pay attention to Xugong Technology and Anhui Heli."
As the upstream industry of construction machinery, the machine tool industry has a cyclical lag. Qiu Shiliang believes that "the 4 trillion stimulus plan and the subsidies for the countryside to the countryside will promote the expansion of the manufacturing industry, the downstream demand will warm up, the general machinery will sell well, and the machine tools will be later than the recovery of construction machinery, so there will be an upward trend in the future."
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