A summary report of the Conference Board pointed out that if performance were observed in several Asian economies over the past two decades, their per capita GDP has quadrupled - which means that, from a historical perspective China is not an economic increase...
According to a study by the Conference Board, if you look at the performance of many Asian economies over the past two decades, their per capita GDP has quadrupled – which means, historically, China is not the world champion of economic growth. The first place should be Japan, followed by Taiwan. In the early morning of June 20th, Beijing time, foreign media said on Thursday that almost every article about China’s unusual economic growth over the past three decades would describe the following two points as facts: 1. China in the past In the past 30 years, there has been an average annual growth rate of 10%; 2. China's long-term growth record cannot be surpassed in modern history.
But a study by the non-profit financial consultancy pointed out that these two statements may not be correct. According to the report of the senior consultant of the consultancy, economist Harry X. Wu, China's economic growth rate between 1978 and 2012 is 7.2% per year, and it does not actually reach 10%.
Harry X. Wu also pointed out in the report that if you look at the performance of many Asian economies over the past two decades, their GDP per capita has quadrupled – which means that historically, China Nor is it the world champion of economic growth. The first place should be Japan, followed by Taiwan.
The report said that the discussion of this issue is not to determine who has the power to boast. On the contrary, companies will make investment plans based on the growth rate of GDP, so accuracy is very important, especially in the economic downturn. Period. Harry X. Wu wrote, “When the economy is slowing or even struggling in reality, the impact of data inaccuracies will be far-reaching, and it will even hurt the efficiency of business, policy and family planning, regardless of Is it in China or outside China?"
Many economists have tried to find loopholes in China's gross domestic product records. Many people also pointed out that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in 2007 that in a conversation with the US ambassador, GDP is a "less reliable" statistic.
According to reports, Li Keqiang, then secretary of the provincial party committee of Liaoning Province, said that he is more willing to observe statistics on indicators such as electricity, rail freight and loans to better assess economic activity.
Like many economists, Harry X. Wu also believes that China overestimates the rate of productivity growth and underestimates the performance of inflation, which means that inflation-corrected GDP is greatly affected every quarter. The number of concerns should be higher than the number. He also pointed out that political factors have played a big role, especially the desire of local government officials to surpass the target of GDP. Achieving this goal has long been an important indicator for the promotion of Chinese officials. Now, this incentive has changed, and the new leadership said that in addition to the growth rate of GDP, local officials will also accept other indicators including environmental clean-up efforts.
The uniqueness of the Conference Board's report is the length of time Harry X. Wu has examined, which included multiple difficult times for the Chinese economy. The difference between the data cited by the consultancy and the official data is largely reflected in the time when the Chinese economy is in trouble.
According to Harry X. Wu's calculations, in 2008, when the financial crisis spread from the United States to the world, China's economy grew by only 4.7%, while China's figure was 9.6%; in 2012, it was the European confrontation. When the economy is in recession, China's economy should grow at a rate of only 4.1%, while the official conclusion is 7.7%. Harry X. Wu stressed that the overestimation of official Chinese data has greatly affected the growth figures for the past three decades.
Harry X. Wu pointed out in the report that after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the gap between numbers and reality became more apparent. He described this period as "a large degree of overcapacity is accumulating in industries dominated by countries and influential industries," and local governments are fiercely competing for the growth rate of GDP to attract investment.
In contrast, Harry X. Wu's analysis of China's economic figures from 1952 to 1978, which was the dominant period of the planned economy, showed that the actual growth rate at that time was no different from the official conclusion. The chart below shows the GDP growth rate given by the Conference Board report. From left to right, it is the official data of China. The China Growth Rate figures obtained by the Consultation Bureau, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea:
Some critics have pointed out that the report of Harry X. Wu is somewhat lacking in detail. For example, he did not explicitly explain why he recalculated China's official GDP data. One of the charts is even incorrectly labeled, and there is some resistance to the data provided by the report – although this does not jeopardize his final conclusion. This report is bound to intensify whether the achievements around China are as dazzling as the government claims.
In addition, even according to the number of Harry X. Wu, China's economic growth rate is amazing, and the annual growth rate of 7.2% over the past 30 years is still a huge achievement - although for the Asian high-speed This is not too prominent for a growing economy, and in a sense it is not even as high as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
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