In the torment of the global financial crisis, China’s "two sessions" in 2009 (the second session of the 11th National People's Congress and the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) will undoubtedly become China. The focus of the world. The representatives of the "two sessions" talked the most about the financial crisis and how to ensure the sustained, stable and healthy development of the economy under the financial crisis.
What information is revealed in these topics, and what information will affect the development of China's construction machinery industry in 2009?
950 billion yuan of national fiscal deficit will accelerate the recovery of construction machinery industry
On March 5, the Premier of the State Council pointed out in his government work report that in 2009, the government will allocate a deficit of 950 billion yuan, including a central budget deficit of 750 billion yuan and a 200 billion yuan bond issued by the local government, which will promote economic growth. China Construction Machinery Trading Network believes that this positive fiscal policy will accelerate the recovery of China's construction machinery industry to a large extent.
On the one hand, the construction machinery industry is a typical investment-driven industry, and the overall market demand is highly relevant to national macroeconomic policies. The 950 billion yuan fiscal deficit will largely solve the financial pressures faced by the country's 4 trillion investment plan, which can effectively guarantee the smooth development of 4 trillion investment projects. The smooth development of various projects in the 4 trillion investment plan is the main factor that has led to the demand for construction machinery and equipment. In this respect, the 950 billion yuan fiscal deficit can accelerate the recovery of China's construction machinery industry.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the impact of the active fiscal policy adopted by the state during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 on the construction machinery industry. From 1998 to 2001, the state issued a total of 510 billion yuan of national debt, and arranged infrastructure construction in 967 cities. The total investment scale of the project is about 330 billion. The positive effect on the construction machinery industry was to reduce the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry from 7.6% in 1997 to 2.9% in 1998, and quickly rose to around 20% in 1999.
The total deficit of the central and local budgets in 2009 reached 950 billion yuan, which is the highest record since the founding of the People's Republic in absolute terms. The resulting role in the construction machinery market in China will be more obvious. In terms of 4 trillion investment, according to the adjusted 4 trillion investment details, investment in major infrastructure construction such as railways, highways, airports, water conservancy and urban power grid transformation will reach 1.5 trillion yuan, higher than the 1998 Asian financial crisis. The amount of investment in infrastructure construction was more than 4.5 times. In addition, post-disaster recovery and reconstruction reached 100 billion yuan, and affordable housing such as low-rent housing and shantytown renovation reached 400 billion yuan, and rural water circuit gas houses and other people's livelihood projects and infrastructure reached 370 billion yuan. These investment projects will also directly form the demand for construction machinery and equipment in China.
Implementation of structural tax reduction policy will enhance the ability of construction machinery enterprises to resist risks
Under the financial crisis, due to the economic downturn, construction machinery enterprises are not only facing sales difficulties such as reduced orders and shrinking markets. At the same time, they are also facing difficulties in capital turnover due to product backlog and bank reluctance. According to the survey of China Construction Machinery Business Network, in January 2009, the monthly inventory turnover days of China's crane industry has reached 47 days, the highest point since 2008. The digestibility of enterprise inventory has been significantly reduced, the capital of enterprises occupied by inventory has become larger and larger, the turnover of corporate funds has become more and more difficult, and business operations have become increasingly difficult. Moreover, overall, the market is sluggish, orders are reduced, and production scale shrinking has become a common topic faced by China's construction machinery companies.
In the business difficulties brought about by the financial crisis, taxation has become one of the important difficulties faced by some enterprises. As a positive fiscal policy, according to the relevant person in charge of the state finance during the "two sessions", in 2009 China will implement consumer-type value-added tax throughout the country, canceling and suspending more than 100 administrative fees. At the same time, we will continue to increase the export tax rebate rate for some products, cancel and reduce export tariffs on some products, and reduce taxation and exemption policies for housing transactions. In general, it is expected that the burden of enterprises and residents will be reduced by about 500 billion yuan in 2009. This will play a very important role in eliminating the double taxation generated by China's current production-based value-added tax system, reducing corporate tax burden, promoting enterprises to expand investment and increasing independent innovation and technological transformation investment, and to a certain extent, it is conducive to mitigation projects. The operational difficulties currently faced by machinery companies enhance their ability to resist risks.
The global financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, and the export situation of construction machinery is still grim!
At present, the biggest problem facing China's construction machinery industry is the decline in the downstream demand market caused by both the decline in exports and consumption.
In terms of domestic demand, based on China's large-scale investment in infrastructure construction, it is basically possible to maintain the normal demand of the domestic market. However, on the export side, the global economic recovery has not been fully bottomed out, and the pace of global economic recovery is difficult and slow. Moreover, the rumors of the second wave of financial crises have gone without a hitch, and the rumors of the impact on the global economy have intensified.
In particular, according to the report, US President Barack Obama suddenly changed his previous optimistic expectations for the US economy, saying that he will not be able to guarantee the recovery of the US economy in 2009. These news will undoubtedly cast a more confusing veil on the deteriorating world economy. In this regard, there is still a long way to go before the export situation improves.
From this point of view, the external environment of China's construction machinery industry exports is full of more uncertain factors and variables, the improvement of export prospects is still difficult to predict, and the export situation is still very serious.
Increased investment in construction of affordable housing will accelerate the recovery of the concrete machinery industry
During the "two sessions", the National Development and Reform Commission released investment adjustments in some areas of the 4 trillion plan, mainly to increase the investment in affordable housing from the previous 280 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan, increasing the concern and support for the people's livelihood. . We know that real estate is one of the three major factors driving the demand for construction machinery market. The increase in investment in construction of affordable housing will largely compensate for the impact on the construction machinery industry due to the sluggish commercial real estate. The increase in investment in affordable housing construction will directly benefit the concrete machinery industry, which is mainly used in the real estate industry and infrastructure investment. Among them, only a single area of ​​real estate accounts for about 40% of the total amount of concrete machinery. Real estate is one of the important factors driving the growth of the concrete machinery industry.
However, at present, China's real estate industry, especially the commercial real estate industry, is suffering from market downturns and adjustments that have not been seen for ten years, which has brought great impact on concrete machinery and related earthmoving machinery. In terms of commercial real estate, based on the consideration of high housing prices, the real estate industry has not only entered the top ten industrial revitalization plans recently introduced by the state, but also did not see any loosening of relevant policies in the “two sessions†in 2009. Among them, Premier Wen’s statement on the second suite policy in the government work report is “the second set of ordinary self-occupied homebuyers who meet the conditions, and the preferential policy of purchasing ordinary self-occupied housing for the first loan.†But the “eligible conditions†The restrictions were imposed by the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission last year to purchase second homes to encourage improved housing conditions. Therefore, the second home loan policy has not changed substantially. The driving effect of commercial real estate on the construction machinery industry is still difficult to play.
The policy tilt of the state on affordable housing, especially this time to 400 billion yuan, is not only conducive to improving the people's livelihood environment, but also to a large extent will alleviate the restrictions on commercial real estate construction machinery The impact of the industry. The most obvious effect of this policy will be to accelerate the recovery of China's concrete machinery industry, and at the same time, it will also drive related products such as earthmoving machinery.
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