Driven by the whole vehicle, the auto parts industry continued to perform well in the first half of the year. Analysts believe that the overall performance of the industry in the second quarter may increase from the previous quarter, but due to the increase in production costs, the ability to pass the cost is weak, and the gross profit margin is at risk of decline.
Overall performance is good
According to the statistics of Wind Information, as of May 18, 16 of the 29 auto parts companies disclosed the first half of the performance forecast, 13 of which were pre-happy. The auto parts industry continued to perform well on the basis of year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
Among the 13 companies, there are 10 pre-increased, and 3 have turned losses. The companies with larger growth include Weichai Power, Ningbo Huaxiang, Wanfeng Aowei, Yinlun, and Telga, among which Weichai Power It is estimated that the net profit for the first half of the year will be 2.56 billion yuan to 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%-160%; Ningbo Huaxiang expects net profit for the first half of the year to increase by 60%-90%; the highest increase of silver wheel shares is 130%. -180%.
The important reason for the good performance of auto parts in the first half of the year was the pulling of the whole vehicle. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's production and sales in January-April were 6,116,300 units and 6,165,900 units, up 64% and 61% respectively. Xu Yingbo, a researcher at CITIC Securities, told the China Securities Journal that the spare parts were lagging behind the vehicle for 1-2 months, and the performance of parts and components in the first half of the year was relatively clear.
Or super first quarter
On a quarterly basis, Aijian Securities researcher Yan Yanhui said, “Because of the Spring Festival in the first quarter, production during the holidays was affected, so the profit of the whole vehicle and parts in the second quarter may be better than the first quarter, at least similar.â€
Despite the worry-free growth in the first half of the year, the market is still worried about the future performance of the entire vehicle and components due to the trend of the high and low of the vehicle market. Li Xuerong, a researcher at China Investment Consulting, said that after June, auto parts may face a test.
However, Yan Yanhui believes that there is no need to worry too much, because even if there is a contradiction between production and sales, the OEM will not cut production capacity so quickly. Moreover, the demand for auto parts is closely related to the after-sales market, and the after-sales market will grow steadily as China's economy grows and car ownership increases.
Analysts believe that the profitability of auto parts companies in the next two years should be more stable than the whole vehicle. From the two-wheeled automobile industry cycle in 2003-2005 and 2006-2008, the profit margin of the parts and components industry is less than the whole vehicle, and the pressure on the expansion of the industry's capacity is relatively small.
Gross profit margin is squeezed
Risk factors are not non-existent, and the immediate increase is the cost. Since the beginning of this year, the rising prices of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum and plastic have directly squeezed the profit margins of component companies. Yan Yanhui said that the bargaining power of parts and components for OEMs is weak, and the possibility of higher gross profit margin in the second quarter is unlikely. According to statistics, the overall gross profit margin of auto parts listed companies in the first quarter of this year was 21.3%.
Li Xuerong believes that in order to solve the problem of rising costs, component companies should increase the added value of export products and strive to expand product exports. Some companies with strong export competitive advantages, companies with large domestic import substitution potential, and some core parts and components with higher technology levels have a better life.
Analysts are more optimistic about the driving system, body accessories and other parts sub-sectors, such as Xiyi, Xiangyang Bearing, Xingmin Steel Ring; some companies that actively carry out technology research and development and introduction are also worth looking forward to, such as Wanxiang Qianchao, Tianrun Crankshaft , Weichai Power, etc. For companies with restrictions on exports, they need to be cautious. For example, the European Commission announced on May 11 the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping of China's aluminum alloy wheels, and imposed a 20.6% anti-dumping duty on all of our products.
According to Wanfeng Aowei announcement, from January to April 2010, the company achieved sales of 73.561 million yuan in the EU. It was originally planned to achieve sales of 308 million yuan in the EU in 2010. Due to the preliminary ruling result of this anti-dumping, it is expected that the sales in the EU will decline throughout the year. 40% or so. The company will make up for the decline in the European market by increasing the supply of the domestic market and the expansion of other international markets such as Japan and the United States.
Overall performance is good
According to the statistics of Wind Information, as of May 18, 16 of the 29 auto parts companies disclosed the first half of the performance forecast, 13 of which were pre-happy. The auto parts industry continued to perform well on the basis of year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
Among the 13 companies, there are 10 pre-increased, and 3 have turned losses. The companies with larger growth include Weichai Power, Ningbo Huaxiang, Wanfeng Aowei, Yinlun, and Telga, among which Weichai Power It is estimated that the net profit for the first half of the year will be 2.56 billion yuan to 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%-160%; Ningbo Huaxiang expects net profit for the first half of the year to increase by 60%-90%; the highest increase of silver wheel shares is 130%. -180%.
The important reason for the good performance of auto parts in the first half of the year was the pulling of the whole vehicle. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's production and sales in January-April were 6,116,300 units and 6,165,900 units, up 64% and 61% respectively. Xu Yingbo, a researcher at CITIC Securities, told the China Securities Journal that the spare parts were lagging behind the vehicle for 1-2 months, and the performance of parts and components in the first half of the year was relatively clear.
Or super first quarter
On a quarterly basis, Aijian Securities researcher Yan Yanhui said, “Because of the Spring Festival in the first quarter, production during the holidays was affected, so the profit of the whole vehicle and parts in the second quarter may be better than the first quarter, at least similar.â€
Despite the worry-free growth in the first half of the year, the market is still worried about the future performance of the entire vehicle and components due to the trend of the high and low of the vehicle market. Li Xuerong, a researcher at China Investment Consulting, said that after June, auto parts may face a test.
However, Yan Yanhui believes that there is no need to worry too much, because even if there is a contradiction between production and sales, the OEM will not cut production capacity so quickly. Moreover, the demand for auto parts is closely related to the after-sales market, and the after-sales market will grow steadily as China's economy grows and car ownership increases.
Analysts believe that the profitability of auto parts companies in the next two years should be more stable than the whole vehicle. From the two-wheeled automobile industry cycle in 2003-2005 and 2006-2008, the profit margin of the parts and components industry is less than the whole vehicle, and the pressure on the expansion of the industry's capacity is relatively small.
Gross profit margin is squeezed
Risk factors are not non-existent, and the immediate increase is the cost. Since the beginning of this year, the rising prices of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum and plastic have directly squeezed the profit margins of component companies. Yan Yanhui said that the bargaining power of parts and components for OEMs is weak, and the possibility of higher gross profit margin in the second quarter is unlikely. According to statistics, the overall gross profit margin of auto parts listed companies in the first quarter of this year was 21.3%.
Li Xuerong believes that in order to solve the problem of rising costs, component companies should increase the added value of export products and strive to expand product exports. Some companies with strong export competitive advantages, companies with large domestic import substitution potential, and some core parts and components with higher technology levels have a better life.
Analysts are more optimistic about the driving system, body accessories and other parts sub-sectors, such as Xiyi, Xiangyang Bearing, Xingmin Steel Ring; some companies that actively carry out technology research and development and introduction are also worth looking forward to, such as Wanxiang Qianchao, Tianrun Crankshaft , Weichai Power, etc. For companies with restrictions on exports, they need to be cautious. For example, the European Commission announced on May 11 the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping of China's aluminum alloy wheels, and imposed a 20.6% anti-dumping duty on all of our products.
According to Wanfeng Aowei announcement, from January to April 2010, the company achieved sales of 73.561 million yuan in the EU. It was originally planned to achieve sales of 308 million yuan in the EU in 2010. Due to the preliminary ruling result of this anti-dumping, it is expected that the sales in the EU will decline throughout the year. 40% or so. The company will make up for the decline in the European market by increasing the supply of the domestic market and the expansion of other international markets such as Japan and the United States.
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