In 2017, the global PV market reached a new high; the long-term trend of “lower prices†and “increased capacity†will continue in 2018. Bloomberg New Energy Finance recently predicted the global PV market and listed some factors that may hinder the pace of growth.
The main growth drivers for global PV demand will continue to come from China. In 2017, the installed capacity of PV in China was 53GW. In 2018, although the government is trying to control subsidies for conventional ground stations, it will continue to support rooftop PV, especially for the development of self-use projects. In this context, the Chinese PV market is likely to continue to grow in 2018.
In addition, although some ultra-low-price winning projects usually carry some complicated additional conditions, and even some projects cannot be built at all, the bid price of 20 to 50 US dollars per MWh has gradually become the mainstream.
In 2018, the market share of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products will increase from 28% in 2017 to 39%, which will squeeze the polysilicon products to a certain extent. FirstSolar, a leader in thin-film photovoltaic products, will benefit from the US's restrictions on imported crystalline silicon and significant optimization of its product line, which will achieve very good results.
Component-level optimization products from companies such as SolarEdge and Enphase will enter the market for inventory upgrades.
In 2018, although institutions such as Italy's Terna are looking for the best grid support for photovoltaic systems, the integrated system of "photovoltaic + energy storage" will not usher in too high sales. In addition, photovoltaic tiles and road systems will not develop much.
a set of data
98GW
Total installed PV capacity in 2017
116GW
Bloomberg New Energy Finance's forecast of total installed capacity in 2018 (medium scenario)
20 to 50 US dollars per MWh
Reasonable price range in PV auctions
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