From September to December, the price of acrylonitrile in East China showed a trend of falling, rising, and oscillating, with an amplitude of up to 40%. Despite the recent sharp rebound in acrylonitrile prices, but the market more unfavorable factors, will inhibit the room for rising acrylonitrile, hope that people concerned about the acrylonitrile market risk.
Both internal and external disks fluctuate sharply in East China. Acrylonitrile prices ranged from RMB 11,600 to 16,800 (t price, the same below) for the period from September to December. The shock amplitude was 44%, and the shock amplitude was significantly greater than that of Southeast Asia. The price rebound rate in East China was greater than that in Southeast Asia. 10 percentage points.
In early September, the price of acrylonitrile in east China was relatively high, at 16800 yuan, and the price at the end of the month was 15,000 yuan, which was 1800 yuan less than at the beginning of the month. In October, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. The price on October 31 was 13,000 yuan, which was a drop of 3,800 yuan from the beginning of September. In early November, the price fell to 11,600 yuan under the effect of inertia, which fell by 5,200 yuan from the beginning of September, a drop of 30.95%. In the second half of November, when the transaction volume was enlarged, the price of acrylonitrile went up slightly. The price at the end of the month was 13,800 yuan, which was an increase of 2,200 yuan, or 18.96%, compared with the first half of November. In December, the trading volume was enlarged and the price rose sharply. The price on December 20 was 14,200 yuan, which was an increase of 2,600 yuan compared with the beginning of November, but it also fell by 2,600 yuan compared with the beginning of September.
In September, the supply of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia increased and the price gradually decreased. The price at the end of September was 2030 U.S. dollars, down by 160 U.S. dollars from the end of August. Prices continued to fall in October, with prices at $1725 on October 31, down $305 from the end of September. November prices rebound, November 30 price of $ 1743, up $ 18 compared to the end of October, December 20th acrylonitrile price of $ 1,800, up $ 57 compared to the end of November, but the price also fell compared with the end of September 230 Dollars.
Weak demand dragged down prices of acrylonitrile currently a total capacity of 1.289 million tons in 2011 production was 1.1 million tons, imports about 440,000 tons, apparent consumption was essentially flat with last year, remained at about 1.5 million tons . However, the prices of downstream acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber fell sharply, which directly dragged down the acrylonitrile market. From January to October, the output of acrylic fiber in China was 577,000 tons, which was 4% higher than that of the same period of last year. The domestic demand for acrylic fiber raw materials for acrylic fiber producers did not increase rapidly. In December, the price of acrylic fiber dropped by 5,600 yuan compared with August; nitrile rubber (The lowest price on November 18 was 18,500 yuan.) In December, the price dropped by 7,200 yuan compared with August, which contributed to the decline in the price of acrylonitrile.
Under the influence of the European debt crisis, the turmoil in the global financial market has intensified. As market participants worried about the slowdown in global economic growth, manufacturing industries in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States gradually weakened. Demand for bulk commodities, market liquidity, and lack of liquidity all affected prices of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia and East China.
In addition, the value of acrylonitrile has been overestimated. From January to March this year, due to the increase in the prices of international crude oil and propylene, the major earthquakes in Japan, Taiguang in South Korea, and the overhaul of acrylonitrile units in Green Lake in the United States, the supply of acrylonitrile was insufficient and prices rose. In April, the price of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia rushed to US$2,900, and the price of acrylonitrile in East China was 21,400. In the case that the value was seriously overestimated and market participants made lucrative profits, the prices of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia and East China were also thrown at the same time. Pressure plate pressure, then began to fall month by month.
The continuous rebound space is limited. The main raw material of acrylonitrile production is propylene. Due to the recent phased bottom price of propylene in Southeast Asia, the domestic acrylonitrile producers are at the edge of losses. Under the support of production costs, the price of acrylonitrile is expected to continue to increase significantly in the near future. The probability of falling is not great.
The price of downstream products of acrylonitrile is weak. In order to reduce losses, downstream companies have reduced the operating rate of production facilities. It can be expected that the demand for acrylonitrile will be reduced under the conduction of the product chain, and the price of acrylonitrile will also lack room for continuous rebound. .
Near the end of the year, in the event of insufficient demand, acrylonitrile circulators and manufacturers are more cautious. In particular, some manufacturers will significantly reduce their inventories in order to complete their assessment indicators, which will lead to an increase in the market pressure to suppress acrylonitrile prices. Rising space.
From the perspective of the international environment, the increase in debt problems in Europe has severely weighed on the economic situation in the euro zone. Not only countries such as Greece and Spain have suffered serious economic decline, but core countries like Germany and France have also shown signs of economic recession. The European debt issue has not been effectively solved and will form a certain psychological pressure on domestic and international acrylonitrile market players.
Both internal and external disks fluctuate sharply in East China. Acrylonitrile prices ranged from RMB 11,600 to 16,800 (t price, the same below) for the period from September to December. The shock amplitude was 44%, and the shock amplitude was significantly greater than that of Southeast Asia. The price rebound rate in East China was greater than that in Southeast Asia. 10 percentage points.
In early September, the price of acrylonitrile in east China was relatively high, at 16800 yuan, and the price at the end of the month was 15,000 yuan, which was 1800 yuan less than at the beginning of the month. In October, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. The price on October 31 was 13,000 yuan, which was a drop of 3,800 yuan from the beginning of September. In early November, the price fell to 11,600 yuan under the effect of inertia, which fell by 5,200 yuan from the beginning of September, a drop of 30.95%. In the second half of November, when the transaction volume was enlarged, the price of acrylonitrile went up slightly. The price at the end of the month was 13,800 yuan, which was an increase of 2,200 yuan, or 18.96%, compared with the first half of November. In December, the trading volume was enlarged and the price rose sharply. The price on December 20 was 14,200 yuan, which was an increase of 2,600 yuan compared with the beginning of November, but it also fell by 2,600 yuan compared with the beginning of September.
In September, the supply of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia increased and the price gradually decreased. The price at the end of September was 2030 U.S. dollars, down by 160 U.S. dollars from the end of August. Prices continued to fall in October, with prices at $1725 on October 31, down $305 from the end of September. November prices rebound, November 30 price of $ 1743, up $ 18 compared to the end of October, December 20th acrylonitrile price of $ 1,800, up $ 57 compared to the end of November, but the price also fell compared with the end of September 230 Dollars.
Weak demand dragged down prices of acrylonitrile currently a total capacity of 1.289 million tons in 2011 production was 1.1 million tons, imports about 440,000 tons, apparent consumption was essentially flat with last year, remained at about 1.5 million tons . However, the prices of downstream acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber fell sharply, which directly dragged down the acrylonitrile market. From January to October, the output of acrylic fiber in China was 577,000 tons, which was 4% higher than that of the same period of last year. The domestic demand for acrylic fiber raw materials for acrylic fiber producers did not increase rapidly. In December, the price of acrylic fiber dropped by 5,600 yuan compared with August; nitrile rubber (The lowest price on November 18 was 18,500 yuan.) In December, the price dropped by 7,200 yuan compared with August, which contributed to the decline in the price of acrylonitrile.
Under the influence of the European debt crisis, the turmoil in the global financial market has intensified. As market participants worried about the slowdown in global economic growth, manufacturing industries in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States gradually weakened. Demand for bulk commodities, market liquidity, and lack of liquidity all affected prices of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia and East China.
In addition, the value of acrylonitrile has been overestimated. From January to March this year, due to the increase in the prices of international crude oil and propylene, the major earthquakes in Japan, Taiguang in South Korea, and the overhaul of acrylonitrile units in Green Lake in the United States, the supply of acrylonitrile was insufficient and prices rose. In April, the price of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia rushed to US$2,900, and the price of acrylonitrile in East China was 21,400. In the case that the value was seriously overestimated and market participants made lucrative profits, the prices of acrylonitrile in Southeast Asia and East China were also thrown at the same time. Pressure plate pressure, then began to fall month by month.
The continuous rebound space is limited. The main raw material of acrylonitrile production is propylene. Due to the recent phased bottom price of propylene in Southeast Asia, the domestic acrylonitrile producers are at the edge of losses. Under the support of production costs, the price of acrylonitrile is expected to continue to increase significantly in the near future. The probability of falling is not great.
The price of downstream products of acrylonitrile is weak. In order to reduce losses, downstream companies have reduced the operating rate of production facilities. It can be expected that the demand for acrylonitrile will be reduced under the conduction of the product chain, and the price of acrylonitrile will also lack room for continuous rebound. .
Near the end of the year, in the event of insufficient demand, acrylonitrile circulators and manufacturers are more cautious. In particular, some manufacturers will significantly reduce their inventories in order to complete their assessment indicators, which will lead to an increase in the market pressure to suppress acrylonitrile prices. Rising space.
From the perspective of the international environment, the increase in debt problems in Europe has severely weighed on the economic situation in the euro zone. Not only countries such as Greece and Spain have suffered serious economic decline, but core countries like Germany and France have also shown signs of economic recession. The European debt issue has not been effectively solved and will form a certain psychological pressure on domestic and international acrylonitrile market players.
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