After the U.S. Superweek, market news was relatively light, but economic data released by the United States still gave bright spots to global investors. Retail sales data, which accounted for 70% of the economy, hit a new high in nearly four months, and car sales increased significantly. The market’s confidence in the economy and employment increased. In September, Michigan’s consumer confidence index was 84.6, a 14-month high, and consumers were more optimistic about the U.S. economy. Although the US S&P and the Dow ended the five-week positive line of the weekly chart, they remained strong. The five-year US Treasury yield hit the upper edge of the triangle consolidation range. Tianyu Jintai believes that the overall improvement of the US real economy and capital market has enhanced the market’s expectation of the Fed’s rate hike.
From September 16 to September 17, the Fed’s FOMC interest rate resolution will be held. A report from the San Francisco Fed pointed out that the market may underestimate the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in advance. The U.S. dollar index rose under the expectation of an interest rate hike. The weekly line closed out the “nine consecutive yang†and the rally was rising. On the other hand, under the double blow of the strong US dollar and the slowdown in China’s money supply M2, the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell to a low value since July 2009. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper fell to approximately The lowest in three months, aluminum fell to a three-week low and zinc fell to a two-month low. Precious metals have not been spared, and gold has fallen to near seven-month lows. Before the FOMC rate decision, the US dollar rate hike is expected to continue to hit the precious metals.
September 18 will be held in the popular referendum in Scotland, the current data show that the number of two schools is almost the same, there is still suspense. Scottish independence will trigger a risk aversion in the European market. Capital will flee the UK financial market, or push up the precious metals. However, from the performance of last week, precious metals did not receive any support, and the probability of Scottish independence was small. Compared with Western markets, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone will launch an international version of spot gold on September 29, which will significantly increase China's right to speak in the precious metals market. The physical demand for precious metals in the Asian market is strong and will provide strong support for the gold trend. Tianyu Jintai believes that although the US dollar interest rate hike is expected to hit the precious metals, it has reached key support levels at the technical level. Large institutions increased their holdings of precious metals, rebounded after gold or ***220/oz, and silver was weaker than gold. Or fix the support of 18.7 USD/oz.
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