Prospects for the Central Economic Work Conference
Reducing the macro bar rate means that the regulation of lowering the financial bar rate in 2017 is expected to escalate. In other words, the country is expected to further reduce the risk of the entire economy due to high leverage in 2018.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference is getting closer.
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 8th set the tone for economic work in 2018. This must be adjusted and implemented in the next Central Economic Work Conference. Among them, the question of how to set the economic growth target next year will become one of the focuses of the market.
Yan Feng, a core member of the Macro-Technology Group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the director of the Economic System Analysis Office, believes that the economic growth target for 2018 may still be around 6.5%, because the current speed target for economic growth is weakening, and more emphasis is placed. Quality of growth.
"The economic growth target in 2017 is expected to reach 6.8%, so that the annual economic growth rate of 6.2%-6.3% in the next three years can achieve the goal of doubling the total economic output in 2020 compared with 2010." Yu Feng said.
In the first three quarters of this year, China's economic growth rate was 6.8%. The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release 2017 full-year figures in January next year. From the current situation, this year's economic growth rate is expected to exceed the expected target of around 6.5% for the whole year.
Effectively control macro leverage
The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 emphasized that promoting high-quality development is the fundamental requirement for determining development ideas, formulating economic policies, and implementing macro-control in the current and future period. It must be deeply understood, comprehensively understood, and truly implemented.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to make overall plans and advance in an orderly manner to ensure that the three major battles are won. To prevent and resolve major risks, the macro-leverage rate should be effectively controlled, the financial services entity's economic ability should be strengthened, and the risk prevention work should achieve positive results. Accurate poverty alleviation should aim at the special assistance of the special poor population, and further focus on the deep poverty areas to put poverty alleviation and The combination of Fuzhi and Fuzhi will stimulate the poverty-stricken people's endogenous poverty alleviation, consolidate poverty alleviation results, and improve the quality of poverty alleviation; pollution prevention and control should make the total discharge of major pollutants continue to decrease significantly, and the overall quality of ecological environment will improve.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that lowering the macro leverage ratio means that the regulation of reducing financial leverage in 2017 is expected to escalate. In other words, the country is expected to further reduce the risk of the entire economy due to high leverage in 2018.
Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Research Department, pointed out that the source of economic risk is that the debt leverage is too high. To prevent risks, it is necessary to clarify the indicators of macro leverage. The future "de-leverage" is still the main tone, so as to prevent risks.
In terms of the macro-leverage rate, the real economy is mainly the de-leverage of state-owned enterprises. The financial sector mainly promotes the falsification of funds and serves the real economy.
The main indicator of China's financial bar rate is loans, and an important indicator of macro leverage is the ratio of broad money (M2) to gross domestic product (GDP).
In 2016, China's total GDP was 74.4 trillion yuan. At the end of December 2016, the M2 balance was 155.01 trillion yuan. In other words, the national M2 is twice the GDP. In the first three quarters of this year, China's total GDP was 593.28 billion yuan. At the end of September, the M2 balance was 165.57 trillion yuan, and M2 was 2.79 times of GDP.
Yu Feng believes that the next step is to reduce the macro leverage ratio, and the ratio of M2 to GDP should be reduced. "In the future, economic growth will depend more on endogenous power, such as technological progress," he said.
The growth rate of broad money M2 is equal to the growth rate of GDP, plus the growth rate of prices, plus the currency multiplier. According to the latest figures released by the central bank on December 11, the balance of broad money (M2) was 167 trillion yuan at the end of November this year, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 2.3 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. . Considering that the current economic growth rate is about 6.8% and the price increase is about 1.5%, this indicates that the money multiplier is rapidly decreasing, which also reflects the increase in de-leveraging.
GDP target is expected to remain unchanged
Many analysts believe that China's economic growth target in 2018 is expected to be the same as 2017.
Li Qilin, managing director and chief macro researcher of Lianxun Securities, believes that maintaining economic growth of around 6.5% in 2018 is enough, and there is no need to pursue higher GDP growth.
“The limited capacity and capacity to start this year, leaving more resources for economic growth to new industries, shows that we are beginning to pursue the quality of economic growth. This process will inevitably have the pressure of economic downturn, but it will make the economy healthier.†He says.
Ji Feng believes that in 2020, to achieve the goal of doubling the total economic volume compared to 2010, the minimum economic growth rate of 6.2% from 2017 to 2020 is ok, but the actual economic growth rate in 2017 will exceed this figure.
The Politburo meeting on December 8 also emphasized the overall improvement of the quality of the ecological environment in 2018, which indicates that the state will also increase the intensity of environmental governance. Tang Jianwei believes that the economic growth rate in 2018 may be slightly slower than that in 2017. The country will downplay the GDP target. The future development philosophy is to insist on high-quality development.
“Now it is in the process of transforming kinetic energy. After removing the backward and excess capacity, we can invest their original resources in emerging industries,†he said. “The weather in this winter is good and the fog is low. The effectiveness of the smog treatment and de-capacity also shows that China has found a balance between sustained economic growth."
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