In recent months, the world has been concerned about the impact of the European and American sovereign debt crisis gradually spreading to the global situation. The implementation and direction of China's various macro-policy measures have also been affected by the turmoil in the world financial environment. Affect the operation of China's steel industry. It is expected that China's steel market will face many uncertain factors in the coming period. The European and American sovereign debt crisis has affected the global economy and the global economic growth has slowed down. Uncertainty in the global economic recovery is on the rise, and developed countries are expected to show long-term low economic growth. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) baseline forecast is that global growth will fall to 4% in 2012 (compared to 5% last year). According to the IMF, in many advanced economies, the ratio of policy debt to GDP is on the rise. In the United States, the ratio of government debt to GDP in 2010 jumped from 58% in 2000 to 91.2%. Recent economic data shows that the overall US labor market remains weak, and the unemployment rate remains high. The market is worried that the US economy may fall into recession again. In Europe, in 2010, the public debt levels of the UK, France, Germany and Italy exceeded 80% of GDP. At present, the European sovereign debt crisis is spread by marginal countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy to the core countries such as Britain, France and Germany. In Japan, the ratio of public debt to GDP has risen from 145% in 2000 to 220.4% in 2010, the highest level in the world. Affected by the earthquake, tsunami and political uncertainty, Japan’s economic growth remains weak. Financial fluctuations have intensified. Since the end of May this year, the global financial environment has begun to fluctuate, especially since August. Concerns about the ability of many countries in developed economies to stabilize their public debt are growing. These concerns have led to a partial freeze in financial liquidity, and banks have had to maintain a high level of liquidity and continue to tighten their lending conditions. At the same time, global share prices have generally fallen, long-term bond yields in major developed economies have fallen, and large-scale risky asset sales have occurred in global markets. Inflation is accelerating. The main reason for the acceleration of inflation is that commodity prices have risen more than expected. Current inflationary pressures are more serious in emerging markets, but there are also inflationary factors within developed economies. As inflation is conductive, it has begun to spread from emerging market countries to developed countries. This leads to a widespread concern that the real economy's “stagflation†risk is rising. The IMF expects consumer price indices in emerging economies to rise by 6% this year, with signs of overheating becoming more pronounced due to rapid credit growth or rising asset prices. Commodity prices fluctuated at a high level. Since August, affected by the continued spread of the European debt crisis and the weak US economy, commodity prices have continued to decline for many days. Among them, the prices of resource commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals have fallen most sharply. However, from the perspective of development trends, the factors driving the high price of bulk commodities have not eased. Food prices and the US's loose monetary policy will support high commodity prices. The negative impact of the European and American sovereign debt crisis on the Chinese economy has increased the risk of depreciation of the US dollar. The US credit rating has been lowered, and the US Treasury bonds purchased by China are facing a shrinking risk, and the purchasing power of the huge foreign exchange reserves has fallen sharply. In addition, since the outbreak of the European debt crisis in 2009, China has continuously increased its holdings of European debt, including the purchase of Greek, Portuguese and Spanish government bonds. It is understood that China’s European debt held so far has reached 600 billion euros. If the European and American sovereign debt crisis worsens, China will face the double impact of the European and American bond issues. Export demand has declined. Against the background of increased economic uncertainty, China's import and export growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter, and foreign trade may even decline. An important data worthy of attention is that the PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) export order index fell to 48.3% in August from 50.4% in July, and fell below the critical point of 50% for the first time since April 2009. Although the export order index rebounded to 50.9% in September, it was still lower than the September average of the years from 2005 to 2010 and the average of the last 12 months. Exports to Europe account for about 22% of China’s total exports, and exports to the United States account for about 20% of China’s total exports. If the crisis spreads and the developed economies fall into recession again, the sharp decline in foreign trade in the fourth quarter of 2008 may repeat itself. Input inflation pressure. In the long run, China will face lasting inflationary pressures. One of the causes of inflation in China is imported inflation. The root cause is that the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) implemented by the United States in October 2010 led to a rapid increase in international commodity prices, especially food prices. At present, China's inflationary pressure is still relatively large. Premier Wen Jiabao once said that stabilizing the overall price level is still the primary task of China's macroeconomic regulation and control, and the economic growth rate has slowed slightly and did not exceed expectations. The central bank has also reiterated many times that it must always be highly vigilant against rising prices. The appreciation of the renminbi. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on September 26, 1 US dollar against the RMB was reported at 6.3735 yuan, a sharp increase of 105 basis points from the previous trading day (6.3840), and a new high since the exchange rate reform. At this point, according to the middle price, since the beginning of this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 4% from the end of last year, which is greater than the increase in the whole year. On October 27, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3477 yuan. The continuous record-on appreciation of the renminbi will also weaken the price competitive advantage of China's commodities, and may shift orders from European and American countries to other lower-priced regions. The financing environment of the real estate industry will be more severe. On the one hand, overseas financing is more difficult. Affected by rising credit risk and large fluctuations in global capital markets, developers may find it difficult to obtain funding through financing channels such as the offshore bond market. On the other hand, the Chinese government has strengthened supervision over the financing of the real estate trust market. More stringent controls on trust loans will further increase the financing pressure on developers, and some small and medium-sized developers whose balance sheets are over-expanding may go bankrupt. Affected by factors such as low real interest rates, lack of financial instruments, and low cost of holding real estate, the potential for a real estate bubble still exists. The impact of the European and American sovereign debt crisis on the domestic steel industry is difficult to finance, the corporate capital chain is tight, and development is inhibited. For a long time, the indirect financing channel with bank credit as the main channel is the main channel for corporate financing in China. Since last year, in the context of macro financial tightening, the financing costs of SMEs have remained high. It is understood that most commercial banks generally increase the interest rate of SME loans by 20% to 30% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate, and even reach 60%. SMEs that are unable to obtain financing from banks, especially small ones, have to turn to private lending. Private lending rates continue to rise, with annual interest rates ranging from 30% to 50%, and as much as 100% or even 360%, while commercial banks currently have a benchmark annual interest rate of only 6.56%. According to a survey report by the Central Bank Research Bureau, in the past two years, the amount of private borrowing funds in China has increased year by year, and the stock funds have increased by more than 28%. In terms of the flow of funds in the private lending market, most small enterprises use funds to supplement the short-term liquidity gap for production, but they do not exclude some private lending funds for stocks and real estate speculation. Under the “high pressure†of the deposit reserve ratio “constraints†and private lending, the increase in the deposits of commercial banks’ residents has been significantly reduced. Insufficient capital liquidity directly leads to a tight operating environment for state-owned large and medium-sized enterprises that have long relied on financing loans to commercial banks. The capital chain is tight, financing costs are rising, and survival and development are more difficult. According to the statistics of the Steel Association, from January to September, the financial expenses of large and medium-sized steel enterprises increased by 34.13% year-on-year. If the liquidity of the market in the later period is further weakened, the situation facing enterprises is even more severe. High-priced raw materials increase cost pressure and the overall profit of the industry decreases. In 2010, China's dependence on imported iron ore was about 63%. As far as the factors affecting the rise of steel prices in China are concerned, foreign input-type costs are driven, that is, iron ore price increases are the main factors. In recent years, iron ore prices have continued to rise sharply and have become the most important factor in squeezing the economic benefits of the steel industry. According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of this year, China imported 448 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 22.71 million tons, an increase of 10.6%; the average landed price of imported iron ore was 164.36 US dollars / ton, up 44.8 US dollars / ton The increase reached 37.5%. Due to the increase in the price of imported iron ore, the foreign exchange expenditure was 20.05 billion US dollars, which increased the cost of the steel industry by nearly 130 billion yuan. As the price of imported iron ore has risen sharply, it is more difficult for steel companies to produce and operate, and they are still in a low-efficiency state. According to the statistics of the Steel Association, the sales profit rate of large and medium-sized steel enterprises from January to September is only 2.99%, which is far lower than the average of 6.07% of industrial enterprises above designated size. It is the industry with the worst profitability in China's manufacturing industry. At the same time, factors such as labor costs, coal, and electricity will also constitute the upward thrust of steel production prices in a long period of time. From the above situation, the trend of high-cost and low-profit production by steel companies is difficult to change in the short term. Declining demand and structural imbalances make business operations difficult. Recently, the National Research Center expects that China's economic growth rate will still be above 9% this year, compared with 9.7% in the first quarter and 9.6% in the second quarter. The economic growth is in a short-term correction, indicating that the domestic market demand has slowed down. foregone conclusion. The steel market is a synchronous indicator of economic growth. Since September, steel market demand has entered a downward channel. Construction, machinery, home appliances, and transportation infrastructure industries are all in a state of PMI decline. Only the auto industry's start-up and orders are weak. At the same time, the decline in demand is also reflected in the rising inventory. Since the beginning of September, the cost of financing has continued to rise at a high level (the discount rate of commercial banks' 6-month acceptance bills has risen to 12‰), and the prices of various varieties in the steel market have shown different downward trends. At present, developed countries in Europe and the United States continue to adopt a loose monetary policy in order to stimulate the economy or ease the debt crisis. China's economy has grown steadily and rapidly, and continues to attract the influx of international capital. According to the statistics of the central bank, the newly added foreign exchange accounted for 376.94 billion yuan in August, a significant increase from the increase of 219.564 billion yuan in July, a month-on-month increase of 71.7%, and signs of hot money counterattacks appeared. Unless there is a major adjustment in the country's macro-control policies, steel companies, distribution companies and downstream users are all facing the pressure of rising financial costs, which will have a very negative impact on the domestic steel market in the later period. The outlook for steel exports is not optimistic, exacerbating overcapacity. China is the second largest steel exporter in the world after Japan. Affected by the downturn in the external economy, steel exports have generally shown a downward trend since April this year. Steel exports to the EU-27 and the United States have shrunk significantly. It is expected that China's steel exports are likely to slow down in the next few months. According to China Customs statistics, from January to September, China's steel exports totaled 37.15 million tons, an increase of 9.5%; cumulative imports of 11.96 million tons, down 4.3%. At the same time, crude steel production is still growing. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, domestic crude steel output was 527.74 million tons, up 10.7% year-on-year; pig iron production was 48.552 million tons, up 10.4% year-on-year; steel output was 66.729 million tons, up 13.9 year-on-year. %. According to this calculation, the annual crude steel output may exceed 700 million tons. It can be seen that the oversupply pressure in the steel market is relatively large, and the prominent contradiction of the oversupply of steel still exists.
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