In 2016, China's new PV power plant indicators reached 18.1GW

Before the deadline of “6·30” (the current year's subsidy standard enjoyed by the project to be connected to the grid before the date), the National Energy Administration issued the “National Energy Administration on June 5th”. The Notice of the Implementation Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction in the Year, delineating the scale indicator of the newly added photovoltaic power station in 2016 - 18.1GW.
Many industry people told this reporter that the scale indicator of “being late” is basically in line with industry expectations. At the same time, there are many bright spots. In particular, the provinces with severe power cuts have not obtained indicators for the first time, and some provinces have applied more actively. All ordinary PV power plant indicators will be converted into PV poverty alleviation indicators.

The scale of the indicator is stable and slightly rising. <br> Compared with the new PV installed capacity in 2015, the scale of 2016 has slightly increased . In March 2015, the National Energy Administration issued 17.8GW of new PV installed capacity, and later added 5.3GW in September of that year. In addition, the Shanxi Datong 1GW leader plan, the final new PV installation target for 2015 is 24.1. GW.
It is worth noting that the new installed capacity index issued by the National Energy Administration in 2016 did not include the poverty-stricken indicators for the PV industry. The "Notice" pointed out that new indicators for PV poverty alleviation will be issued later. Provinces that have not obtained the indicators for the construction of ordinary photovoltaic power plants this year may obtain new targets in the scale of poverty alleviation of the photovoltaic industry. This also left a lot of room for delusion in the market.
The reporter noted that the "Notice" highlights frequently. Not only for the first time in the provinces where the power curtailment was severe and the indicators were not obtained, but also for the first time, some provinces took the initiative to convert all the PV power plant indicators into PV poverty alleviation applications.
Previous industry analysis believes that by 2020, the total scale of 15GW of PV poverty alleviation will be decomposed into 2-3GW per year. In view of the arduous and urgency of the current poverty alleviation work, it is expected that the total scale of PV poverty alleviation this year is expected to reach 5GW, exceeding previous expectations. This means that if PV poverty alleviation indicators are added, the installed capacity of PV in 2016 will reach more than 23GW, which is equivalent to the volume in 2015. However, it is worth mentioning that there is a precedent for the addition of the fourth quarter indicator in 2015, and whether it is added in 2016 is not yet known.

The timing of the release is conducive to the steady development of the industry. "Although this year's indicators have been issued a little late, but the introduction of documents, is still a good thing for the photovoltaic industry." Sunshine Power President Cao Renxian told reporters.
“Before the “Notice” was issued, we felt the anxiety of the PV industry, mainly because there was no new annual indicator after the rush to install.” Lv Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly, said in an interview with China Energy News. "If this year's PV installed capacity scale stops at the '6·30' critical time node, it will have a big impact on the industry."
"It is still possible to announce the convergence of indicators in time, at least relatively flat. In the first half of 2016, the PV market was hot, but due to the delay in the scale indicators, the industry's previous expectation is that the domestic market will shrink severely in the second half of the year. In the case of restricted exports, it is predicted that there will be a big contrast between the first half of the year and the second half of the year. The "Notice" at this time will introduce the opportunity for the industry to achieve a smooth development, and the photovoltaic manufacturing industry that needs to balance the policy and market environment. Important." Lu Jinbiao said.
Yu Zhengtao, general manager of Ningxia Luju Energy, also said in an interview that the time and scale of the "Notice" were reasonable, and the scale of the new installed capacity of 18.1GW "has allowed the upstream and downstream PV industry to see that they should get Market expectations."
"Photovoltaic companies are expected to have a lot of leisure in the third quarter of this year, and the situation will be significantly improved in the fourth quarter." Cao Renxian said, "The timing of the "Notice" is directly related to the stability and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. The uneven production of the stage has become the biggest challenge facing the photovoltaic industry. The most worrying enterprises are unplanned and the market is highly volatile, because a series of management such as supply chain, quality and human resources will face the test."

The test of the provincial management wisdom "Notice" has caused industry hot discussion and tested the management wisdom of governments at all levels. From the perspective of geographical distribution, the "Notice" stipulates that there are no construction scale ceilings in six regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tibet and Hainan. In this regard, some people in the industry analyzed that the above-mentioned cities are load centers and face urgent needs for energy structure adjustment. Although the state encourages these cities to develop photovoltaics, due to the harsh conditions of photovoltaic installations, even if there are no scale restrictions, the future installed capacity is still very limited. of.
Other provinces that are waiting for indicators are also "very anxious." According to the reporter's understanding, there are 2GW projects in Hubei Province in line; Henan provincial-level filing has reached 2.91GW, local filings exceed 13GW; Guangxi project reserves are close to 1GW; Jiangxi 3GW project filing exceeds the province's “13th Five-Year Plan”; Anhui Province also stopped filing for the record in the beginning of June this year.
"It is predicted that this year's grid-connected power stations will still be dominated by western ground-based photovoltaic power plants. The current situation of enterprises queuing in the western region is even more serious." Yu Zhengtao pointed out.
The reporter noticed that for the first time, the "Notice" implemented measures to stop or suspend the release of indicators in several provinces with severe power cuts, poor grid connection environment and difficult to improve new energy consumption. Three new ones in Gansu, Xinjiang and Yunnan. The energy province is impressive. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Co., said in an interview that this means that the government pays more attention to investment benefits and encourages the simultaneous development of power supply construction and power consumption.
"In the two or three provinces where power cuts are abandoned, the government does not issue indicators to promote rectification and digestion, improve the dilemma of new energy consumption, and rationally guide power station investors, predicting that some listed companies and non-public capital will naturally avoid These areas." Lu Jinbiao said.
At the same time, the "Notice" turned all the ground indicators in Shandong Province into PV poverty alleviation indicators, which also made the industry "wrong". "Without occupying the national one-watt indicator and not taking the country's poverty alleviation funds, we will use market forces to make the province's poverty alleviation majors, and poverty alleviation ideas lead the country." Xu Pengfei, general manager of Qingdao Feipeng Energy, was interviewed by reporters. “Some provinces do not need indicators because there are still poverty alleviation and front-runners who can apply, but Shandong’s move is not good news for companies that do not want to do PV poverty alleviation. It is expected that there will be further implementation documents in Shandong.”
Xu Pengfei said that because this year's power station with indicator filing is about to be transformed into a poverty alleviation project, the ownership of photovoltaic power plants will also change. The industry is more worried that these indicators will be invalidated. Will the project be unfinished? “Because the investment in the power station was done by the enterprise, the income of the enterprise is directly related to the quality of the power station. However, the ownership of the power station belongs to the government and the poor households. The quality and operation and maintenance are faced with problems, which requires the management wisdom of all levels of government.”

Photovoltaic construction changed from "quantity" to "quality"
In the total scale of 18.1GW nationwide, ordinary photovoltaic power plant projects account for 12.6GW, and the scale of photovoltaic front runners is as high as 5.5GW, which indicates that the country has put forward the requirement of “quantity” to “quality” for PV power plant construction.
According to Zhong Baoshen, the increase in state support has a positive impact on the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry. The market demand for high-efficiency products is increasing, which is conducive to speeding up the upgrading of manufacturing technology.
In an interview with reporters, Zhu Zhanjun, president of GCL-Poly, pointed out that the current demand is not a concern. “Now the main reason is that the supply capacity is expanding too fast. The main task this year is to ensure the supply of efficient products together with customers. For example, our polycrystalline series S4 and large size S3 have an efficiency of 18.3-18.6% under ordinary battery technology. Producing high-efficiency products accounted for up to 80%, fully meeting the requirements of the PV leader plan.” He said, “On the one hand, new products will increase the conversion rate; on the other hand, the price will be lowered, and the technological progress will be shared with customers as soon as possible. The monthly price of silicon wafers has been actively reduced by 5%, which is intended to help major customers gain a foothold in the global top ten and gain greater market share."

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